Free MLB Picks Friday June 23, 2023
Let me present 4 MLB picks for you today, Friday June 23rd!
Yesterday, we crushed it with a perfect 4-0 record across all sports at mjpicks.com, including the two free plays I shared with you.
Remember the mantra of this channel: let’s crush the bookies together!
SYSTEM PICK #1: Atlanta Braves (@ -154 odds, at Cincinnati Reds)
Up first, I am taking the Atlanta Braves to stop Cincinnati’s 11-game winning streak.
The Braves are backed by two of my MLB betting systems, including one called “The Hot Teams Matchup #1”. I determined its rules after analyzing data on seven full seasons. Let me reveal the secrets behind this strategy: bet the road team if they have won at least one game in a row whenever they are facing a home squad that is coming off at least four consecutive victories.
In this case, Atlanta is riding an eight-game winning streak, while the Reds have picked up the W on 11 straight occasions. Rookie AJ Smith-Shawver is set to take the mound for the Braves. He has done an excellent job thus far this season by allowing just three earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. The quality of his pitching will eventually regress, but he could give us a nice outing today.
Meanwhile, the Reds will counter with Luke Weaver who’s been quite bad for most of his MLB career. This year he owns an ugly 6.47 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP stat. It’s really hard to trust this guy, especially against one of the top baseball teams in the league.
The Braves clearly won’t take the Reds lightly given their recent hot run. They will be focused and I really believe they will win this match.
The Braves are 13-3 against right-handed pitchers lately, while the Reds are 14-3 under the same conditions. Something’s gotta give!
I think Cincinnati goes back down to Earth, which is why I am putting my money on the Braves to roll at Great American Ball Park today.
Final decision: Official pick
SYSTEM PICK #2: Colorado Rockies (@ +140 odds, vs Los Angeles Angels)
The second system pick is Colorado at home against the Angels, a game in which the Rockies are supported by “The Cold Teams Matchup #2” betting strategy. The rules go like this: bet the home squad if they are coming off at least four losses in a row, while the visiting team has lost either 1, 2 or 3 games in a row.
The Angels are undergoing a two-game losing skid, while the Rockies have suffered the defeat 8 straight times, so by following those rules we are invited to grab Colorado. Now, do I like this play enough to bet? Let’s see.
The Angels had been rolling until their bats went silent via back-to-back 2-0 home losses against the Dodgers. This could be a good spot to face them, especially with Kyle Freeland who’s proven to be capable of solid starts. He’s had some ups and downs, but overall his WHIP statistic has been better than his counterpart, Patrick Sandoval. And that was despite playing half of his games at Coors Field, a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Still, I always keep the following quote in the back of my mind: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”, which recommends avoiding to bet teams who have been on a freefall. In the end, I have decided to rate the Rockies pick as a lean.
Final decision: Lean
SYSTEM PICK #3: Milwaukee Brewers (@ +125 odds, at Cleveland Guardians)
All right, up next my betting angles recommend taking the Milwaukee Brewers in Cleveland, a game that will feature a matchup between Wade Miley and Shane Bieber. Miley has been enjoying one of his best seasons ever. His 1.09 WHIP stat is awesome, and that’s despite being crushed by the Dodgers on May 10.
Meanwhile, it has been the opposite situation for Bieber, whose ERA and WHIP stat are the highest they have been since his rookie campaign. He has still done a fine job, but he’s not as dominant as he once was.
Given the high odds on Milwaukee and how inconsistent the Guardians can be, I think it could be worth taking a shot. I’m not excited enough about this bet to make it an official betting pick, but let’s rate it as a lean.
Final decision: Lean
SYSTEM PICK #4: Minnesota Twins (@ -120 odds, at Detroit Tigers)
The last game I want to talk to you about is Minnesota in Detroit. None of my systems are suggesting to bet any of those teams, but after doing my own analysis I like the Twins quite a bit in this spot.
One of the key reasons I am officially taking Minnesota is the revenge factor. Last week, the Tigers won three out of four games in Minnesota, so I’m sure the Twins will be looking for some payback.
The Twins went through a rough stretch, but their two latest victories over the Red Sox are certainly making them much more confident.
Both starters are big question marks, but Minnesota’s offense is much more dangerous than Detroit’s. Kenta Maeda is coming off the injured list. He made four rehab starts and did pretty well. Meanwhile, Joey Wentz has done a poor job this season, although he has fared better of late.
Still, to me the price is very reasonable on the Twins against a much inferior team. Give me Minnesota all day for my second official pick of the day!
Final decision: Official pick
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