Free MLB Picks Friday September 29, 2023
Welcome to my last MLB regular season article, a big thank you to all of you for following my betting journey throughout the 2023 campaign, I appreciate each of you so much!
We are going to wrap up the season with a betting pick that is supported by the best-performing betting system we’ve had the entire season, which is called “The Scoring Drought”!
This betting strategy has accumulated 39 wins versus just 6 losses this year. It’s one of the few systems that I trust that backs favorites on a regular basis, but given how lucrative it has been, there is no way I can ignore it. If you take into account the odds from the 45 betting recommendations it has made this season, the return on investment was +28.8%. That’s quite impressive, isn’t it?
That being said, let me review its criteria for betting. First, the road team’s moneyline must be greater than +150 in American format, which amounts to 2.50 in decimal format. Then, if the road team in question lost its past two games by scoring a maximum of two runs in each of those defeats, you’ve got to put your money on the home team.
In other words, the visiting team has been struggling to put runs on the board lately and they are pretty big underdogs today. In this case, history has shown that this bad run tends to continue, which is why we are betting their opponents, the home squad.
SYSTEM PICK #1: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (@ -134 odds, vs Washington Nationals)
All right, which team should we bet according to this system today? Let’s focus on the Washington Nationals. They are the visiting team and their moneyline is way higher than +150 today. Moreover, they did lose their past two contests by scoring 0 and 1 run, respectively. So, by following “The Scoring Drought” betting angle, my top pick for Friday September 29 goes to the Atlanta Braves.
Given how small the odds are on Atlanta, I have decided to go with the run line. Those of you who have been following me this season know I’m not a big fan of doing this because I got burned on several occasions over the past couple of seasons doing this. Still, I feel very good about this bet so I’m going to pull the trigger, but of course it’s up to you to make your own decisions here.
The starting pitchers in the Washington-Atlanta matchup will be Trevor Williams and Allan Winans. Washington manager Dave Martinez said he talked to Williams and the latter admitted it was a long season for him. The numbers also show that he’s been slowing down because his velocity has been down significantly in his most recent outings.
With the Braves looking to break an all-time record for the number of homeruns hit during a full season, I believe they will take advantage of Williams’ struggles. He has allowed 17 runs in his past 10 1/3 innings. My only source of concern is that he skipped a turn in the rotation, so he may be feeling better with the additional rest.
On the other side, the Braves will give the ball to Allan Winans, a 28-year-old rookie that has impressed many so far. He has given up two runs or fewer in 4 of his 5 starts, with his only blemish being an August 21st start in which he allowed 7 runs to the Mets. Other than that poor outing, he’s been super solid. He wants to prove he can pitch in the Big Leagues, so he will clearly be motivated for this game.
The revenge factor plays in our favor on both sides. First, the Braves will be looking to avenge a home loss to Trevor Williams on June 11. Also, Winans suffered a loss to the Nationals in his last outing on September 24.
In short, we have a lot of green lights indicating to bet the Atlanta Braves tonight, so that’s what I’m going to do!
Thanks again for reading the 100+ posts I made this summer about Major League Baseball picks, I am so grateful that you have spent so much time with me, thank you from the bottom of my heart!
As a former professor, I have an assignment for you: go check out my NFL Week 4 picks by clicking right here!