Free MLB Picks Friday September 8, 2023

It’s time for my top MLB pick for Friday September 8th.

The free baseball wager from yesterday lost, as the Marlins got smashed 10-0 against the Dodgers.

However, one of the 4 free NFL picks I shared with you was in action last night. Since mid-July, I had been recommending to grab the Lions in Kansas City, and they came through with a great 21-20 upset at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

SYSTEM PICK #1: New York Yankees first 5 innings moneyline (@ -130 odds, vs Milwaukee Brewers)

All right, so my favorite bet in Major League Baseball for today is backed by a betting system called “The Big Upset #2”. It leads to only 25 picks per season on average, so when a play qualifies under its rules, we gotta pay attention to it.

First, let me explain how it works. Suppose Team X was the VICTIM of a “big upset” in its last game, where a “big upset” means an underdog at +150 odds or higher won the match. If Team X is an underdog today and they are facing a different opponent, you need to bet AGAINST Team X.

Let’s see how it applies today. Milwaukee’s last contest took place on Wednesday, a game in which the Pittsburgh Pirates got the victory even though their closing line was +167 with the Pinnacle sportsbook. That means the Brewers were indeed the victim of a big upset in their last game, right?

Now, we have two more requirements that must be met. Up first, Milwaukee must be an underdog today; that is indeed the case. Secondly, they have got to be playing against a different squad, which, again, is the case. So, by following the rules of this system, we need to FADE the Brewers, and that is why my top MLB pick for Friday September 8 is the New York Yankees.

But wait! After analyzing the game and the betting lines, I have decided to go with the first half moneyline, rather than the full game. At the time I made this post, the most advantageous line was between -130 and -140 in American format, or a 1.71 to 1.77 range in terms of decimal odds.

So far this season, “The Big Upset #2” betting angle has produced 12 picks, which have yielded an awesome 9-3 record. By risking one unit per wager, you would have racked up a +39.2% ROI on those plays.

I have to admit this is a small sample size though, so you cannot really draw solid conclusions from those numbers. However, we obtained a 15-7 record last year, an 11-9 record in 2021, and an 18-13 record in 2020.

So, if you merge the 2020 to 2023 seasons, you get a total of 53 wins and 32 losses. To me, that is pretty convincing. The average odds of those plays have been around -115. At such odds, you need a 53.5% winning percentage to be profitable, while we attained 62%.

The Yankees are feeling upbeat after winning 8 of their past 10 games. Meanwhile, I’m not sure the Brewers are thrilled about losing 2 of 3 meetings with the lowly Pirates.

Two shaky pitchers will start today’s game. On Milwaukee’s side, Colin Rea has given up exactly two homeruns in each of his past three starts. Meanwhile, Luis Severino had showed good signs of improvement after shutting out the Tigers and the Nationals but he allowed four runs in four innings in Houston in his last outing.

Still, overall, I like New York’s chance of getting the W. They are playing more loose and their confidence seems to be back, while Milwaukee is feeling the Cubs breathing down their neck, as they are just two games back in the NL Central division.

 

Did you watch both of my NFL videos? One of them was published in mid-July with 3 super early picks for Week 1. Then, yesterday I released a brand new video adding a fourth free play for you!

I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher wishing you a great weekend!