Free MLB Picks Monday July 17, 2023

This article will reveal my favorite betting pick in Major League Baseball for Monday July 17. It is my girlfriend’s birthday so this post will be shorter than usual because my kids and I have some plans for her special day.

The pick in question is NOT supported by any of my 19 betting systems, but rather comes from my own analysis of the game, and also what my MLB mathematical model is telling me to do.

SYSTEM PICK #1: Cleveland Guardians (@ -118 odds, at Pittsburgh Pirates)

Based on my math model, Cleveland has a 57.1% chance of winning this game. This means the fair line is -133 in American format. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, it corresponds to 1.75.

I shared this pick at 10:49 am Eastern Time on mjpicks.com, and at that time the best available line was -118 with the Stake sportsbook, as you can see below. Many books had a line lying between -120 and -125.

On the mound, we have a couple of unproven guys squaring off against each other. On Cleveland’ side, Xzavion Curry has made 25 appearances in the Big Leagues, but just two as a starter and both of those starts occurred last year. However, he was a starter throughout his minor-league career, so it’s a role he’s comfortable in. Curry has done a very solid job from the bullpen this season, as evidenced by his 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP stat.

The Pirates will counter with Quinn Priester who will make his MLB debut. He is one of the best pitching prospect for the Pirates, but his 4.31 ERA in Triple-A this year is uninspiring.

Pittsburgh started the season with a surprising 20-8 record, but they have gone 21-44 since then, which amounts to a 32% winning percentage.

The Guardians have a record hovering .500, but they are just 2.5 games behind the Twins for the top spot in the AL Central division. They are playing to win now, as opposed to the Pirates who are trying out lots of young prospects.

Cleveland just got swept in Arlington, Texas, but they had been playing good baseball prior to that series. I’m sure they are ready to rebound today against a much weaker opponent.

 

Last night, I had a chance to attend what might have been the best musical show I have ever been to. I saw one of my top three bands from when I was a teenager: Green Day.

They played in front of 90,000 fans in a beautiful setting in Quebec City. I know they are not going to read this post, but I still want to say thank you for such a perfect night and hats off to Bad Religion who also gave a solid show.

I’ll see you again tomorrow for more MLB picks!