Free MLB Picks Thursday August 24, 2023

I have an upset special in Major League Baseball for you today, Thursday August 24.

Yesterday, my two official baseball picks produced a 1-1 record, while the bonus gift in my YouTube live stream, a WNBA wager, was an easy winner. Indeed, we took the L.A. Sparks -5 points for the first half of their game against the Phoenix Mercury, and they were already up by 15 after a single quarter.

This means we hold a 21-4 record in the WNBA lately. Such picks are readily available at mjpicks.com, by taking the “All Sports” premium package!

 

SYSTEM PICK #1: Cincinnati Reds (@ +150 odds, at Arizona Diamondbacks)

Without further ado, my top MLB pick for August 24 is the Cincinnati Reds at odds that currently vary between +140 and +150 in American format. If you are more familiar with decimal odds, that corresponds to a range between 2.40 and 2.50.

The Reds qualify under “The Hot Teams Matchup #1” betting system that suggests taking the road team if they are coming off at least one win, while the home squad is riding a winning streak of length at least four. In this case, Cincinnati has won its past three games, while the DBacks are coming off four victories in a row.

Personally, I feel like the line is inflated due to Merrill Kelly starting for Arizona. He was good last year, and he has done a fine job as well since returning from a calf injury in late July. However, did you notice how he has shown some signs of weakness lately? He has allowed 2 homeruns in each of his past two starts.

Rookie Brandon Williamson will take the mound for the Reds. He got off to a rocky start to his MLB career by presenting a 5.82 ERA during his first eight outings. However, over his next nine starts, he has posted a good 3.38 ERA.

Both teams went through a very difficult stretch, but they are turning the corner. As a matter of fact, the Reds are 7-4 recently, while Arizona has won 9 of its past 11 contests.

Obviously, the Diamondbacks have a better chance of winning this matchup, but the implied probability of a +150 line is 40%, and I think the Reds hold a higher chance of winning tonight’s match. In fact, my statistical model estimates Cincy’s win percentage at 42.4%, which means this line has value at odds +136 or better.

 

In case you weren’t aware of it yet, you can watch my super early NFL picks for week 1 by clicking here!