Free MLB Picks Thursday September 7, 2023

The MLB picks performed very well again yesterday, so let’s keep crushing the bookies together my friend!

I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher. So far I have found two very strong baseball picks, so let me present one of them to you in this article (if you wish to receive all of my betting picks across all sports, simply join our group of savvy sports bettors by clicking here!).

 

SYSTEM PICK #1: Miami Marlins (@ +113 odds, vs Los Angeles Dodgers)

Remember one of the key reasons why I opted to grab the Marlins yesterday. I showed you in yesterday’s live stream that “The Hot Bats #2” system has done so badly during the past three years that I had started to go AGAINST its betting recommendations. We took the Marlins and the Yankees on Wednesday because of that, and both turned out to be winners. So why change a winning formula?

For those of you who missed the live stream and its replay, let me briefly review the key elements. “The Hot Bats #2” betting strategy suggests betting against the home team if they are coming off 4 straight wins in which they scored a minimum of 5 runs in each of those victories.

Now, the Marlins are indeed at home and they have picked up the W in each of their past four contests by scoring 11, 6, 6 and 11 runs, respectively.

Under normal circumstances, I would follow the advice of the system, and I would be betting AGAINST the Marlins. However, this betting angle has produced a 24-60 record over three years, a 29% win percentage. So, instead, I am backing the Marlins to continue their hot offensive run.

Ryan Pepiot is set to start for the Dodgers. He has done a very solid job in each of his three appearances this season. However, I was happy to find out that one of the teams he faced was Miami, which means they know what to expect, and they have had time to adjust and gameplan accordingly. Pepiot has only pitched 50 innings in the Big Leagues during his career, so he has limited experience.

Meanwhile, the Marlins will counter with Braxton Garrett. He has been a regular starter for two years, and in both cases he held an ERA below 4. He really has done a good job for Miami. Also, he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his past 7 outings.

As stated yesterday, I also like the fact that the Marlins are clearly the most desperate team. They are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Dodgers hold a 13-game lead in the NL West division. L.A. has won just one game out of its past six games, so it’s a good time to take advantage of their lower confidence level, especially after suffering a few injuries and seeing Julio Urias being arrested for domestic violence.

 

I’m Professor MJ, cheers my friend!