Free MLB Picks Tuesday August 1, 2023

Today I’m going to do something I rarely do, which is to bet AGAINST the advice given by one of my MLB betting systems. As a matter of fact, I’ll go against “The Hot Bats” betting strategy that goes like this: FADE the home team if they have won their past two games by scoring at least six runs in each of those victories.

Now, the Pirates are at home today, and they have won their past two contests by scoring 6 and 7 runs, respectively. For this reason, this betting angle suggests taking their opponents, the Detroit Tigers. However, after analyzing this game further, I like Pittsburgh so much that I have decided to make it an official betting tip for today, Tuesday August 1st.

SYSTEM PICK #1: Pittsburgh Pirates (@ -110 odds, vs Detroit Tigers)

First of all, I’ve got to mention the fact that “The Hot Bats” betting system is the second-worst performer this season among my 19 MLB systems. More precisely, by following this betting angle and risking one unit per wager, we would have lost 10.36 units over 104 bets, which amounts to a -10% ROI. That’s awful.

During the 2022 season, “The Hot Bats” strategy generated 5.31 units of profit, but in 2021 it turned out to be a catastrophic season for this strategy: a loss of 33.75 units! That’s why I have lost a lot of faith into it. I still track its performance, but I don’t get excited at all when it recommends betting a certain team.

Matt Manning is set to start for the Tigers. Over the whole season, he holds some pretty good numbers, but he is coming off a rough outing in which he surrendered seven runs to the Angels. Over his career, he has also fared significantly worse on the road versus at home.

Johan Oviedo will try to extend Pittsburgh’s winning streak to three. His WHIP statistic at home is 1.20 this season compared to 1.50 on the road. He has allowed exactly one run in 2 of his past 3 starts, so that’s encouraging.

I also like the fact that the Pirates are 6-4 over their past 10 games overall. Meanwhile, the Tigers are heading in the opposite direction since they present a 3-7 record lately.

 

Thanks so much for reading my daily MLB picks, I consider you as a true and loyal friend! I appreciate you!