Free MLB Picks Tuesday September 12, 2023
What’s up bookie crushers, today I’ve got 2 MLB picks for you! Are you ready for this?
First, let’s quickly review what happened yesterday. The free play on the Astros run line flopped badly, as they got shutout 4-0 by the lowly A’s. Come on, man!
I added three premium wagers at mjpicks.com for regular members. We lost another baseball bet, but both NFL betting tips were winners. In fact, we took the under in the first half of the Bills versus Jets showdown, and James Cook to rack up over 14.5 receiving yards. We enjoyed a nice opening week in the NFL, yes sir!
SYSTEM PICK #1: San Diego Padres (@ +143 odds, at Los Angeles Dodgers)
Now, let’s get back to MLB betting. The first pick for today is supported by a betting system called “The Comeback”.
How does it work? It recommends betting any team that satisfies the following three conditions:
1) in their last game, they came back to win after trailing by at least four runs;
2) they are facing the same opponent today;
3) their moneyline today is better than -175, so that we avoid taking big favorites.
Yesterday, the Padres trailed 7-2 in L.A. through the first three innings. However, they stormed back by getting the W by an 11-to-8 score. Since they are facing the Dodgers again today, and their moneyline is much better than -175, then pick number one for Tuesday September 12 is the San Diego Padres to pull off the upset at Dodger Stadium!
I also find the line quite enticing given we are betting against the pitcher that has allowed the most homeruns in the entire league, Lance Lynn. He got off to a surprisingly good start after joining the Dodgers, but he is back to his old self. Over his past three starts, he has allowed 18 runs in 15 innings. That’s awful.
Meanwhile, the team we are backing is sending a solid starter to the mound: Michael Wacha. His season ERA is below 3, which is very impressive. I have to admit, though, that his prior three starts have been less convincing, but they haven’t been ugly either.
Given the odds hovering around +140 and how the Dodgers have slowed down significantly recently, as shown by their 4-7 record during their past 11 contests, I think it’s worth taking a shot on the Padres tonight.
SYSTEM PICK #2: Chicago White Sox (@ -122 odds, vs Kansas City Royals)
Pick number two is not backed by any of my MLB betting systems. I like the Chicago White Sox in Game #1 of the doubleheader.
This game will feature Brady Singer squaring off against Dylan Cease. Both have performed poorly recently. Indeed, Singer has allowed 16 runs in less than 13 innings since August 19, while Cease has posted a 9.30 ERA over his last four outings.
In the end, I have more faith that Cease will rebound with a nice performance. In fact, if you asked me, I believe this could turn out into a surprisingly low-scoring game with both hurlers doing much better than expected, so I am also leaning towards the under.
Both teams are out of playoff contention, so which team will be more motivated? In my mind, it has to be the home squad because they don’t want to disappoint their fans. Also, K.C. holds an atrocious 18-54 record on the road this season.
So, in summary, I am taking the Padres to upset the Dodgers in L.A. tonight, while I also believe the White Sox will take Game 1 of their doubleheader against the Royals in the late afternoon.
I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher saying so long!