Free MLB Picks Tuesday September 19, 2023

Are you ready for my top Major League Baseball pick for Tuesday September 19?

I’m back from my trip to Toronto and Buffalo last weekend, which ended up being simply perfect. My family and I saw the Blue Jays win in 13 innings over the Red Sox on Saturday, before attending the Bills’ home opener in perfect weather conditions. I don’t recall going to a NFL game wearing shorts and a t-shirt, and we also got to see the Bills destroy the Raiders 38-10.

I’m not done watching the replay of the NFL games, I don’t know all the scores yet so I can’t announce the winner of my free prediction contest. I will do that tomorrow for sure during my live stream, which is set to begin at 11 am Eastern Time as usual.

 

SYSTEM PICK #1: Toronto Blue Jays -0.5 first 5 innings (@ +135 odds, at New York Yankees)

All right, my favorite bet for September 19 is backing an underdog at positive odds. I’m taking the Toronto Blue Jays -0.5 run for the first five innings of their contest at Yankee Stadium. Given how the Yankees hold a 0.4% chance of making the postseason according to ESPN, while Toronto is desperate for a win, I like this bet at such nice odds.

I also believe Yusei Kikuchi is more reliable than Clarke Schmidt. I have defended Schmidt on several occasions this year, but I feel he is running out of gas. He has allowed exactly three runs in each of his past three starts. In his last outing, he picked up 3 strikeouts and 3 walks, while also hitting a batter.

Granted, Kikuchi didn’t fare very well in his last start by squandering a total of six runs to the Texas Rangers. However, in his prior 10 starts he posted a great 2.44 ERA so I believe he can rebound today. In 11 career appearances against the Bronx Bombers, he has presented a decent 3.75 ERA.

I do believe Toronto’s bats are ready to break out in the upcoming days. They only scored 10 runs during their three-game sweep of the Red Sox.

 

You are personally invited to my MLB live stream tomorrow at 11 am Eastern Time! As usual, I will discuss 4-5 potential baseball wagers. We have a lot of afternoon games on the menu, so we should have some nice betting action!

I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university professor of statistics wishing you a great day my friend!