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BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

The Cavaliers are still unbeaten in the playoffs (9-0): they have been very impressive thus far. Can they keep it up tonight in Game 2 at the TD Garden?

MAY 19, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Cavaliers	-5,5	-4,3	-222	-176	1,45	1,57		-12,2%
Celtics	+5,5	+4,3	+199	+176	2,99	2,76	X	7,5%
Tip: Bet the Celtics.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Celtics +5.5 against the Cavaliers. I am fully aware how much Cleveland has been playing at a high level (including LeBron James who has looked unstoppable!). But let’s step back a little bit. In Game 1 the line closed at 4 points in most books. In other words, the line has now increased by 1.5 points simply because of the outcome of Game 1. As far as I know, there aren’t any new injuries. So basically we had the opportunity to watch both teams play around 90 games this season, but just a single game was enough to make the line shift by 1.5 points? It may not look that big of a move on the surface, but it’s a big one. It is telling us that instead of having a 37% chance of winning the game, Boston now has a 32% chance (approximately). Quite a difference.

To put things in perspective, I went back to find regular season games in March where the road team was a 5, 5.5 or 6-point favorite. Here are four that I found:

• Boston Celtics -5 at Philadelphia 76ers (March 19)
• Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 at Sacramento Kings (March 22)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -5 at Orlando Magic (March 29)
• Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 at Chicago Bulls without Dwayne Wade (March 30)

Think about the difference in team strength between today’s Cavaliers and the Celtics. Is it really as big as the difference in team strength between, say, the Bucks and the Kings? No way! Or simply look at the last example above where those same Cavaliers were playing the Bulls without Wade. Sure, I agree that Cleveland is now playing at a higher level, but Boston is much better than the Wade-less Chicago Bulls (they finished 12 games ahead of them, and it would have been worse had Wade been out for the entire season).

The Cavaliers have now won 12 straight playoff games. Wow! In the 2016-17 playoffs, they are 6-2-1 against the spread as their only two losses occurred in Games 1 and 2 of the first-round series versus Indiana (Cleveland was a 9-point favorite in both games, but won by 1 and 6 points). Meanwhile, after dropping their first two home playoff games against Chicago, the Celtics had won five consecutive games at the TD Garden before Game 1’s loss versus the Cavaliers.

Jonas Nader from Rotoworld.com suggests we might see a lot more from rookie Jaylen Brown who played amazingly well defensively against King James. Coach Brad Stevens obviously needs to make changes, and this could be one. Why not give it a try?

You can also read ESPN's game preview here. 

Good Friday all!

Professor MJ