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BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Game 5 of the intriguing Rockets-Spurs series is set to begin at 8pm Eastern Time tonight. From a betting perspective, I’ve got a 1-star play. Here are the details:

 

MAY 9, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Rockets	+5,5	+6,6	+188	+262	2,88	3,62		-10,1%
Spurs	-5,5	-6,6	-210	-262	1,48	1,38	X	5,2%
Tip: Bet the Spurs.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m betting the Spurs -5.5 against the Rockets. The public is fairly split on this game with 58% of the spread bets going on San Antonio, while 51% of the money line bets are backing Houston. Recall how my Bounce-Back article suggests taking teams coming off a loss against the spread (ATS) of 12.5+ points: this criterion is met in this case since the Spurs lost Game 4 by a 21-point margin while being a 5-point underdog (i.e. a loss ATS by 16 points).

After winning their last six postseason trips to San Antonio, the Rockets finally lost on May 3^rd. From an injury standpoint, the Spurs suffered a blow earlier in the series when Tony Parker was ruled out of the remainder of the playoffs with a quad injury. It was Houston’s turn to get bad news as Nene Hilario won’t be back because of an adductor tear. It’s pretty unfortunate considering he was playing great basketball of late.

We have yet to see a truly close game in this series: the smallest margin of victory has been 11 (in the other three games: 27, 25 and 21). San Antonio holds an 81-28 home record since 2002. Spurs guard Manu Ginobili expressed how important he felt tonight’s game was by saying “Game 5 is a Game 7”.

 

Enjoy the game!

Professor MJ