Free NHL Picks for October 4, 2017 by Professor MJ
FREE NHL PICKS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Yes, hockey is finally back! I’ve got 1 value play on opening night for you.
Before we discuss today’s games, let me briefly touch the topic of a system on totals that has yielded good results in the past. In an interview I did with Jason Logan from Covers.com (on “The Sports Investor Podcast”), he mentioned that unders tend to be a good play early on in the regular season. As a matter of fact, he claims unders have gone 318-259 (a 55.1% win percentage) during the first month of the regular season over the past 4-5 years. The guys might be playing more conservatively early in the season, and the rhythm and chemistry among linemates may not be there yet.
That being said, I’m not claiming you should bet your house on the under of each game for the next 30 days. But that’s something to keep in mind. You might either want to bet the under, or stay away from totals until the end of October.
All right, so without further ado here are my projected lines for tonight’s games, along with Pinnacle’s odds.
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OCTOBER 4, 2017 |
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MONEY LINE |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Maple Leafs |
-105 |
-115 |
1,95 |
1,87 |
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4,4% |
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Jets |
-105 |
+115 |
1,95 |
2,15 |
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-4,7% |
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Tip: No value bet (Maple Leafs are borderline). |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Blues |
+167 |
+235 |
2,67 |
3,35 |
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-20,3% |
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Penguins |
-186 |
-235 |
1,54 |
1,43 |
X |
7,9% |
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Tip: Bet the Penguins. |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Flames |
+138 |
+151 |
2,38 |
2,51 |
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-5,2% |
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Oilers |
-153 |
-151 |
1,65 |
1,66 |
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-0,5% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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PROFESSOR MJ |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Flyers |
+136 |
+156 |
2,36 |
2,56 |
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-7,8% |
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Sharks |
-150 |
-156 |
1,67 |
1,64 |
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1,6% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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I’m taking the Stanly Cup champions Pittsburgh Penguins at -186 (decimal 1.54) against the Blues. St. Louis is already banged up quite a bit with Robby Fabbri out for the season, and Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund and Jay Bouwmeester on the injury list as well. It will be interesting to see how newly acquired Brayden Schenn does with the Blues. Meanwhile, the Penguins lost a few players like Marc-Andre Fleury, Matt Cullen and Mark Streit, but the top guns are still there. Having a healthy Kris Letang back will certainly help too. Please note that 82% of money line bets have gone on Pittsburgh, which is not something I like to see as a contrarian.
Note: The projections are made using several statistical models and some power rankings, plus my own assessment of team strengths, and also accounting for factors like injuries and who the starting goalies are on that day.
Thanks a lot for reading this write-up and I wish you a very entertaining and profitable NHL season!
Professor MJ
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