FREE NHL PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Hello hockey fans! I generally don’t talk much about totals, but let me tell you about an early trend that is occurring in the NHL through the first two days: the over went 3-1 on opening night, before going 6-1-1 last night. So overall we’ve had 9 overs, 2 unders and 1 tie. Wow! That goes totally against the advice provided by Jason Logan from Covers.com in an interview I did on “The Sports Investor Podcast” (either on iTunes or Stitcher), where he mentioned that “unders” won 55.1% of the time in the first month of the regular season over the past 4-5 years. Let’s keep a close eye on this trend in the next few days.

Only three games on the menu tonight, and I’ll suggest two picks. Here are the detailed projections:

 

OCTOBER 6, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Islanders	+125	+175	2,25	2,75		-18,2%
Blue Jackets	-138	-175	1,72	1,57	X	9,7%
Tip: Bet the Blue Jackets.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Panthers	+155	+187	2,55	2,87		-100,0%
Lightning	-172	-187	1,58	1,53		3,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Golden Knights	+193	+264	2,93	3,64		-19,5%
Stars	-215	-264	1,47	1,38	X	6,3%
Tip: Bet the Stars.

 

PICK #1: Columbus Blue Jackets -138 (decimal 1.72) vs New York Islanders

I’d be curious to know whether preseason record has any impact on how teams are doing early on in the regular season. The Islanders went 6-0-2 during preseason this year, so we’ll see how it translates tonight. Columbus had the 4^th-highest point total last year and their lineup is pretty much intact, except they’ve added Artemi Panarin who recorded 74 points in 2016-2017. Did you know Panarin is 7^th in terms of points scored over the past two years? Granted, the Jackets did lose Brandon Saad in the offseason (53 points last year) but overall the team seems even better.

It’s important to note that head coach John Tortorella opted to put backup goalie Joonas Korpisalo in net tonight (saving starter Sergei Bobrovsky for a clash with the Blackhawks, who literally crushed the Penguins 10-1 yesterday, in Chicago Saturday). Korpisalo only stopped 90.5% of the shots fired at him last season, so don’t bet your house on this game. As of now, 73% of money line bets have gone on Columbus.

Meanwhile, the Islanders have added some spark on offense by acquiring Jordan Eberle. Thomas Greiss will be the starter in net. Once the Islanders fired head coach Jack Capuano, they went on to go 24-12-4 under Doug Weight. The contract situation of captain John Tavares may be a distraction for the Isles. New York has an interesting group of young talent with Matthew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Ho-Sang and Ryan Pulock, but they might not have a big impact right out of the gate.

The team from Ohio has defeated the Islanders three out of four times in 2016-2017, including two home wins by a combined 13-2 score! New York certainly does not feel very comfortable playing at Nationwide Arena, and that’s one of the key reasons why I’m going with the Jackets (plus the pretty big difference in talent level).

PICK #2: Dallas Stars -215 (decimal 1.465) vs Vegas Golden Knights

It’s pretty weird how I normally don’t play many big favorites, but I’ve already been taking three this year. I do believe the Stars should be more heavily favored in this game. Sure, Vegas will do its best to win its first ever game in the NHL, but talent is simply not on the same level as Dallas. The Stars were one of the most aggressive teams during the offseason, acquiring Alexander Radulov, Marc Methot, Martin Hanzal and goalie Ben Bishop. Add in great players that were already on the team like Seguin, Benn, Spezza and Klingberg, and you have a dangerous team.

Vegas did a solid job at the expansion draft, but proceeded to trade away some good players in order to build for the future. That’s a smart strategy, but it will make their inaugural season more difficult.

The Stars did much better at home than on the road last season. If you count losses in extra time as “losses”, they were 22-19 at home versus 12-29 on the road. Dallas had a disappointing season in 2016-2017, but remember how they finished 2^nd overall in the entire league a couple of years ago, thanks to a 50-23-9 record. With Bishop in net, they might have found the key to more stability in goal.

 

Thanks again for reading and have a nice weekend!

Professor MJ

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