DraftKings DFS Lineups (NFL WEEK #14)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

1) INTRODUCTION

This article will give you optimal lineups for Week 14 in the NFL on DraftKings (Daily Fantasy Sports).

Buckle up, it’s time to beat your opponents!

2) TOP PLAYERS PER POSITION

Let me start off by presenting the top 5 players at each position, as determined by “Expected Points Per Thousand Dollar Salary” (EPPT).

They are the guys bringing the best bang for your buck this week.

Note: The player projections are a mix of my own predictions and those posted by a few reliable websites.

TOP 5 QBs

• Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs NO
  • 3.49 EPPT (17.8 expected points, $5,100 salary)
• Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) vs HOU
  • 3.34 EPPT
• Taysom Hill (NO) at PHI
  • 3.26 EPPT
• Russell Wilson (SEA) vs NYJ
  • 3.04 EPPT
• Patrick Mahomes (KC) at MIA
  • 2.99 EPPT

 

TOP 5 RBs

• Giovani Bernard (CIN) vs DAL
  • 2.92 EPPT
• D. McKissic (WAS) at SF
  • 2.82 EPPT
• David Montgomery (CHI) vs HOU
  • 2.60 EPPT
• Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs ATL
  • 2.57 EPPT
• James Robinson (JAX) vs TEN
  • 2.52 EPPT

 

TOP 5 WRs

• Cam Sims (WAS) at SF
  • 3.06 EPPT
• Breshad Perriman (NYJ) at SEA
  • 3.05 EPPT
• Michael Gallup (DAL) at CIN
  • 3.03 EPPT
• Keke Coutee (HOU) at CHI
  • 2.94 EPPT
• J. Hamler (DEN) at CAR
  • 2.93 EPPT

 

TOP 5 TEs

• Logan Thomas (WAS) at SF
  • 2.97 EPPT
• Cole Kmet (CHI) vs HOU
  • 2.86 EPPT
• Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs NO
  • 2.73 EPPT
• Evan Engram (NYG) vs ARI
  • 2.67 EPPT
• Travis Kelce (KC) at MIA
  • 2.66 EPPT

 

TOP 5 DST

• 49ers (vs WAS)
  • 4.48 EPPT
• Raiders (vs IND)
  • 4.00 EPPT
• Bengals (vs DAL)
  • 3.83 EPPT

 

3) OPTIMAL LINEUPS

I wrote a program that finds great lineups maximizing projected points.

I did it via the statistical software called R.

 

3.1) THE OPTIMAL LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES (50/50 endeavors with smaller payouts)

According to my R program, the lineup that maximizes your expected points in Week 13 (with a projected score of 144.6 points) is:

• QB = Russell Wilson (SEA, $7,900)
• RB = Giovani Bernard (CIN, $5,000)
• RB = J.D. McKissic (WAS, $4,900)
• WR = Breshad Perriman (NYJ, $3,900)
• WR = Keke Coutee (HOU, $5,000)
• WR = Corey Davis (TEN, $5,700)
• TE = Travis Kelce (KC, $7,400)
• FLEX = James Robinson (JAX, $7,500)
• DST = 49ers (SF, $2,700)

In my opinion, that is a solid lineup for Cash games.

3.2) A GOOD LINEUP FOR GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool – Large tournaments)

Here is how I suggest proceeding when setting up your GPP lineups:

• Find a good QB & WR/TE tandem from the same team by looking at the best bargains at these two positions;
• Pick players at other positions which bring a good bang for your buck;
• Avoid including players that bring negative correlation in your lineup. For example, you do not want a RB from the same team as your QB-WR duo.

This week, here is a good QB & WR/TE combo that can form the basis of your GPP lineups in Week 13:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (Note: Kelce has a good outlook for this game. Why? Because Miami has two good cornerbacks to cover wide receivers. The best mismatch for Mahomes is to target Kelce);

Starting from this duo, I can recommend the following GPP lineup.

GPP lineup:

• QB = Patrick Mahomes (KC, $8,100)
• RB = Giovani Bernard (CIN, $5,000)
• RB = David Montgomery (CHI, $6,500)
• WR = Breshad Perriman (NYJ, $3,900)
• WR = Keke Coutee (HOU, $5,000)
• WR = Michael Gallup (DAL, $3,800)
• TE = Travis Kelce (KC, $7,400)
• FLEX = James Robinson (JAX, $7,500)
• DST = 49ers (SF, $2,700)

 

IMPORTANT WARNING:

Some player projections tend to change quite a bit as the week progresses due to new information regarding injuries.

Would you like to receive more up-to-date optimal lineups on Sunday morning?

 

If so, simply sign up to my exclusive mailing list where I'll be sending final optimal NFL lineups!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)