NFL DraftKings Lineups for Week 15 in 2020 regular season

DraftKings DFS Lineups (NFL WEEK #15)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

1) INTRODUCTION

This article will give you optimal lineups for Week 15 in the NFL on DraftKings (Daily Fantasy Sports).

2) TOP PLAYERS PER POSITION

Let me start off by presenting the top 5 players at each position, as determined by “Expected Points Per Thousand Dollar Salary” (EPPT).

They are the guys bringing the best bang for your buck this week.

Note: The player projections are a mix of my own predictions and those posted by a few reliable websites.

TOP 5 QBs

  • Kyler Murray (ARI) vs PHI
    • 3.47 EPPT (24.3 expected points, $7,000 salary)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL) vs TB
    • 3.33 EPPT
  • Philip Rivers (IND) vs HOU
    • 3.17 EPPT
  • Jared Goff (LAR) vs NYJ
    • 3.05 EPPT
  • Tom Brady (TB) at ATL
    • 2.91 EPPT

 

TOP 5 RBs

  • Ronald Jones (TB) at ATL
    • 2.70 EPPT
  • Alvin Kamara (NO) vs KC
    • 2.61 EPPT
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs CHI
    • 2.58 EPPT
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs SF
    • 2.56 EPPT
  • Kenyan Drake (ARI) vs PHI
    • 2.45 EPPT

 

TOP 5 WRs

  • Denzel Mims (NYJ) at LAR
    • 3.17 EPPT
  • Michael Gallup (DAL) vs SF
    • 2.94 EPPT
  • Damiere Byrd (NE) at MIA
    • 2.92 EPPT
  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF) at DAL
    • 2.87 EPPT
  • Greg Ward (PHI) at ARI
    • 2.73 EPPT

 

TOP 5 TEs

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI) at ARI
    • 3.26 EPPT
  • Cole Kmet (CHI) at MIN
    • 2.97 EPPT
  • Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs SF
    • 2.91 EPPT
  • Jordan Akins (HOU) at IND
    • 2.68 EPPT
  • J. Hockenson (DET) at TEN
    • 2.50 EPPT

 

TOP 5 DST

  • Vikings (vs CHI)
    • 3.71 EPPT
  • Cardinals (vs PHI)
    • 3.66 EPPT
  • Rams (vs NYJ)
    • 3.29 EPPT
  • Washington Football Team (vs SEA)
    • 3.27 EPPT
  • Cowboys (vs SF)
    • 3.26 EPPT

 

3) OPTIMAL LINEUPS

I wrote a program that finds great lineups maximizing projected points.

I did it via the statistical software called R.

 

3.1) THE OPTIMAL LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES (50/50 endeavors with smaller payouts)

According to my R program, the lineup that maximizes your expected points in Week 15 (with a projected score of 146.7 points) is:

  • QB = Kyler Murray (ARI, $7,000)
  • RB = Ronald Jones (TB, $6,000)
  • RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
  • WR = Denzel Mims (NYJ, $3,500)
  • WR = Brandon Aiyuk (SF, $6,300)
  • WR = Christian Kirk (ARI, $4,300)
  • TE = Dallas Goedert (PHI, $3,900)
  • FLEX = T.Y. Hilton (IND, $5,500)
  • DST = Rams (LAR, $4,500)

In my opinion, that is a solid lineup for Cash games.

3.2) TWO GOOD LINEUPS FOR GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool – Large tournaments)

Here is how I suggest proceeding when setting up your GPP lineups:

  • Find a good QB & WR/TE tandem from the same team by looking at the best bargains at these two positions;
  • Pick players at other positions which bring a good bang for your buck;
  • Avoid including players that bring negative correlation in your lineup. For example, you do not want a RB from the same team as your QB-WR duo.

This week, here are good QB & WR combos that can form the basis of your GPP lineups in Week 15:

  • Jared Goff and Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams);
  • Philip Rivers and T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts).

Starting from this duo, I can recommend the following GPP lineup.

GPP lineup #1:

  • QB = Jared Goff (LAR, $6,300)
  • RB = Ronald Jones (TB, $6,000)
  • RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
  • WR = Denzel Mims (NYJ, $3,500)
  • WR = Robert Woods (LAR, $6,800)
  • WR = CeeDee Lamb (DAL, $4,500)
  • TE = Dallas Goedert (PHI, $3,900)
  • FLEX = T.Y. Hilton (IND, $5,500)
  • DST = Rams (LAR, $4,500)

GPP lineup #2:

  • QB = Philip Rivers (IND, $5,900)
  • RB = Ronald Jones (TB, $6,000)
  • RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
  • WR = CeeDee Lamb (DAL, $4,500)
  • WR = Brandon Aiyuk (SF, $6,300)
  • WR = Christian Kirk (ARI, $4,300)
  • TE = Dallas Goedert (PHI, $3,900)
  • FLEX = T.Y. Hilton (IND, $5,500)
  • DST = Rams (LAR, $4,500)

Note: I prefer the second lineup over the first. Why?

First of all, many people are expected to grab Goff and Woods since they are facing the weak Jets pass defense. In GPPs, it is preferable to go with players who are not sexy picks if you wish to have a shot at the big prizes.

Secondly, I do not like the fact that we have the Rams defense, as well as Denzel Mims who is playing against them.

For these reasons, GPP lineup #2 seems the best alternative.

IMPORTANT WARNING

Some player projections tend to change quite a bit as the week progresses due to new information regarding injuries.

Would you like to receive more up-to-date optimal lineups on Sunday morning?

Last week’s last-minute lineup did a great job!

If so, simply sign up to my exclusive mailing list where I'll be sending final optimal NFL lineups!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)