DraftKings DFS Lineups (NFL WEEK #11)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

1) INTRODUCTION

Optimal lineups for Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) in Week 11 of the NFL.

That’s what you’ll get from reading this article!

Last week’s recommended lineups generated good profit last week, so let’s keep it up!

2) TOP PLAYERS PER POSITION

Let me start off by presenting the top 5 players at each position, as determined by “Expected Points Per Thousand Dollar Salary” (EPPT).

They are the guys bringing the best bang for your buck this week.

Note: The player projections are a mix of my own predictions and those posted by a few reliable websites.

TOP 5 QBs

• Carson Wentz (PHI) at CLE
  • 89 EPPT (22.2 expected points, $5,700 salary)
• Joe Burrow (CIN) at WAS
  • 75 EPPT
• Jake Luton (JAX) vs PIT
  • 68 EPPT
• Cam Newton (NE) at HOU
  • 63 EPPT
• Justin Herbert (LAC) vs NYJ
  • 62 EPPT

 

TOP 5 RBs

• Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs DAL
  • 80 EPPT
• D. McKissic (WAS) vs CIN
  • 62 EPPT
• Alvin Kamara (NO) vs ATL
  • 54 EPPT
• Nyheim Hines (IND) vs GB
  • 48 EPPT
• D’Andre Swift (DET) at CAR
  • 42 EPPT

 

TOP 5 WRs

• Jakobi Meyers (NE) at HOU
  • 41 EPPT
• Jakeem Grant (MIA) at DEN
  • 97 EPPT
• Robby Anderson (CAR) vs DET
  • 82 EPPT
• Randall Cobb (HOU) vs NE
  • 81 EPPT
• Brandin Cooks (HOU) vs NE
  • 69 EPPT

 

TOP 5 TEs

• Logan Thomas (WAS) vs CIN
  • 67 EPPT
• Eric Ebron (PIT) at JAX
  • 65 EPPT
• Dalton Schultz (DAL) at MIN
  • 61 EPPT
• J. Hockenson (DET) at CAR
  • 57 EPPT
• Mark Andrews (BAL) vs TEN
  • 49 EPPT

 

TOP 5 DST

• Bengals (at WAS)
  • 70 EPPT
• Broncos (vs MIA)
  • 54 EPPT
• Browns (vs PHI)
  • 43 EPPT
• Vikings (vs DAL)
  • 36 EPPT
• Washington Football Team (vs CIN)
  • 21 EPPT

 

3) OPTIMAL LINEUPS

I wrote a program that finds great lineups maximizing projected points.

I did it via the statistical software called R.

3.1) THE OPTIMAL LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES (50/50 endeavors with smaller payouts)

According to my R program, the lineup that maximizes your expected points in Week 11 (with a projected score of 148.2 points) is:

• QB = Justin Herbert (LAC, $6,800)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
• RB = Alvin Kamara (NO, $9,200)
• WR = Jakobi Meyers (NE, $4,900)
• WR = Jakeem Grant (MIA, $3,500)
• WR = Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,000)
• TE = Eric Ebron (PIT, $4,000)
• FLEX = Randall Cobb (HOU, $3,600)
• DST = Browns (CLE, $3,000)

In my opinion, that is a solid lineup for Cash games.

3.2) TWO GOOD LINEUPS FOR GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool – Large tournaments)

Here is how I suggest proceeding when setting up your GPP lineups:

• Find a good QB-WR tandem from the same team by looking at the best bargains at these two positions;
• Pick players at other positions which bring a good bang for your buck;
• Avoid including players that bring negative correlation in your lineup. For example, you do not want a RB from the same team as your QB-WR duo.

This week, here are good QB-WR combos that can form the basis of your GPP lineups in Week 11:

• Cam Newton and Jakobi Meyers;
• Deshaun Watson and Brandin Cooks.

Starting from those duos, I can recommend a few GPP lineups.

GPP lineup #1:

• QB = Cam Newton (NE, $6,200)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
• RB = Alvin Kamara (NO, $9,200)
• WR = Jakobi Meyers (NE, $4,900)
• WR = Jakeem Grant (MIA, $3,500)
• WR = Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,000)
• TE = T.J. Hockenson (DET, $4,200)
• FLEX = Randall Cobb (HOU, $3,600)
• DST = Vikings (MIN, $3,300)

GPP lineup #2:

• QB = Deshaun Watson (HOU, $6,500)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,000)
• RB = Alvin Kamara (NO, $9,200)
• WR = Jakobi Meyers (NE, $4,900)
• WR = Jakeem Grant (MIA, $3,500)
• WR = Robby Anderson (CAR, $6,000)
• TE = Logan Thomas (WAS, $3,300)
• FLEX = Brandin Cooks (HOU, $5,200)
• DST = Bengals (CIN, $2,300)

I hope the advice from this article will help you crush your DFS opponents this weekend!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)