DraftKings DFS Lineups (NFL WEEK #13)

BY PROFESSOR MJ

1) INTRODUCTION

This article will give you optimal lineups for Week 13 in the NFL on DraftKings (Daily Fantasy Sports).

Buckle up, it’s time to beat your opponents!

2) TOP PLAYERS PER POSITION

Let me start off by presenting the top 5 players at each position, as determined by “Expected Points Per Thousand Dollar Salary” (EPPT).

They are the guys bringing the best bang for your buck this week.

Note: The player projections are a mix of my own predictions and those posted by a few reliable websites.

 

TOP 5 QBs

1) Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) vs DET
3.39 EPPT (18.3 expected points, $5,400 salary)
2) Taysom Hill (NO) at ATL
3.13 EPPT
3) Justin Herbert (LAC) vs NE
3.00 EPPT
4) Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs PHI
3.00 EPPT
5) Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs IND
2.89 EPPT

TOP 5 RBs

1) Frank Gore (NYJ) vs LV
2.82 EPPT
2) David Montgomery (CHI) vs DET
2.80 EPPT
3) Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs JAX
2.60 EPPT
4) Austin Ekeler (LAC) vs NE
2.59 EPPT
5) Giovani Bernard (CIN) at MIA
2.52 EPPT

TOP 5 WRs

1) Keke Coutee (HOU) vs IND
3.31 EPPT
2) Breshad Perriman (NYJ) vs LV
3.08 EPPT
3) Brandin Cooks (HOU) vs IND
3.05 EPPT
4) Robert Woods (LAR) at ARI
2.93 EPPT
5) Anthony Miller (CHI) vs DET
2.90 EPPT

TOP 5 TEs

1) Robert Tonyan (GB) vs PHI
2.49 EPPT
2) Hunter Henry (LAC) vs NE
2.44 EPPT
3) Trey Burton (IND) at HOU
2.40 EPPT
4) Hayden Hurst (ATL) vs NO
2.35 EPPT
5) Darren Waller (LV) at NYJ
2.30 EPPT

TOP 5 DST

1) Lions (at CHI)
3.56 EPPT
2) Bears (vs DET)
3.23 EPPT
3) Seahawks (vs NYG)
3.18 EPPT
4) Packers (vs PHI)
2.95 EPPT
5) Dolphins (vs CIN)
2.89 EPPT 

3) OPTIMAL LINEUPS

I wrote a program that finds great lineups maximizing projected points.

I did it via the statistical software called R.

3.1) THE OPTIMAL LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES (50/50 endeavors with smaller payouts)

According to my R program, the lineup that maximizes your expected points in Week 13 (with a projected score of 143.4 points) is:

• QB = Mitchell Trubisky (CHI, $5,400)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,500)
• RB = David Montgomery (CHI, $5,500)
• WR = Keke Coutee (HOU, $3,500)
• WR = Brandin Cooks (HOU, $5,600)
• WR = Robert Woods (LAR, $5,900)
• TE = Hunter Henry (LAC, $4,800)
• FLEX = Austin Ekeler (LAC, $7,100)
• DST = Lions (DET, $2,500)

I do not like the fact that we have two players from the Bears, the Texans and the Chargers.

So here is an alternative lineup that’s projected to produce slightly less points, but that corrects this flaw (projected score of 142.7 points):

• QB = Taysom Hill (NO, $6,300)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,500)
• RB = David Montgomery (CHI, $5,500)
• WR = Breshad Perriman (NYJ, $3,900)
• WR = Brandin Cooks (HOU, $5,600)
• WR = Robert Woods (LAR, $5,900)
• TE = Robert Tonyan (GB, $3,700)
• FLEX = Austin Ekeler (LAC, $7,100)
• DST = Lions (DET, $2,500)

In my opinion, that is a solid lineup for Cash games.

3.2) A GOOD LINEUP FOR GPPs (Guaranteed Prize Pool – Large tournaments)

Here is how I suggest proceeding when setting up your GPP lineups:

• Find a good QB-WR tandem from the same team by looking at the best bargains at these two positions;
• Pick players at other positions which bring a good bang for your buck;
• Avoid including players that bring negative correlation in your lineup. For example, you do not want a RB from the same team as your QB-WR duo.

This week, here is a good QB-WR combo that can form the basis of your GPP lineups in Week 13:

• Deshaun Watson and Brandin Cooks.

Starting from this duo, I can recommend the following GPP lineup.

GPP lineup:

• QB = Deshaun Watson (HOU, $7,500)
• RB = Dalvin Cook (MIN, $9,500)
• RB = Frank Gore (CHI, $4,400)
• WR = Breshad Perriman (NYJ, $3,900)
• WR = Brandin Cooks (HOU, $5,600)
• WR = Robert Woods (LAR, $5,900)
• TE = Trey Burton (IND, $3,500)
• FLEX = Austin Ekeler (LAC, $7,100)
• DST = Lions (DET, $2,500)

 

IMPORTANT WARNING (WANT UPDATED LINEUPS SUNDAY?)

Some player projections tend to change quite a bit as the week progresses due to new information regarding injuries.

Would you like to receive more up-to-date optimal lineups on Sunday morning?

If so, simply sign up to my exclusive mailing list where I'll be sending final optimal NFL lineups!

 

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)