NFL PICK WEEK #3 - Thursday Night Football

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

 

LEAN: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 vs Tennessee Titans

Here is the YouTube video version of this prediction.

The Titans are such an unpredictable team. After a convincing 43-13 win in Cleveland, they were upset at home by the Colts by a 19 to 17 score. They couldn’t win despite a 2-to-0 turnover differential in their favor. Their third down efficiency was dreadful: just 1-for-10.

Tennessee was just as unpredictable last year. They beat great teams like New England, Dallas and Philadelphia, but they lost to weaker teams like Miami and Buffalo.

Meanwhile, the Jags are 0-2, but they have faced tough opposition while playing with their backup quarterback. They lost their home opener against the Chiefs before losing by a single point at Houston. They literally came within an inch of winning the game, as Leonard Fournette was stopped short of the goal line for what might have been the game winning two-point conversion.

Quarterback Gardner Minshew has done a lot of good things thus far. He has completed 45 of his 58 pass attempts, which equates to a 78% completion rate. He has also thrown 3 TD passes versus just one interception. He has also shown is mobility by rushing 7 times for 62 yards; that’s a 9 yards per rush average!

After getting slaughtered by the Chiefs offense, Jacksonville’s defense stepped up its game in Houston last week. I expect them to make life difficult to Marcus Mariota and company, especially at home.

By picking the Jags, we also have the revenge factor going our way. Indeed, Tennessee won both meetings last year: 9-6 in Jacksonville and 30-to-9 in Tennessee. Betting the team that has lost the previous year’s two matchups has proven to be a profitable betting angle over the years in the NFL. Take the Jags in this one!

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)