NFL Picks Week #1 (2024 regular season)
NFL picks (Week #1)
by PROFESSOR MJ
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Are you ready for another moneymaking NFL betting season? You have come to the right place.
I’m Professor MJ, a 15-year university statistics teacher, and I have helped thousands of sports bettors to boost their bankroll since 2017. Here is the evidence:
First, let’s focus on bets on sides and totals. As you can see above, we have had a winning season in each of the past seven years. The breakeven point at -110 odds is 52.4%, while we’ve exceeded 53% every single year.
The results were particularly great last season where we hit 61.3% of our betting plays via a superb 61-38-3 record. You can see below what the last 23 wagers were.
We enjoyed just as much success with player proposition bets. In total, I shared 144 betting tips that yielded an 83-61 record.
If you had risked $100 on each player, you would have earned a profit of $1,300, which corresponds to a 9% return on investment.
In this article, I will present 6 NFL picks for Week 1 of the 2024 regular season. One of them turns out to be one of my premium picks for this week.
Stay tuned until the end of this post because I’ll let you know how you can get access to ALL of my football PREMIUM picks this season.
Are you ready to rock and roll? Let’s go!
WINNING STRATEGY FOR WEEK 1
Its rules are super simple, and yet very effective.
It simply recommends betting a team that did NOT qualify for the playoffs last year whenever they are facing a team that did make it into the postseason.
During the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons, we have racked up 14 wins, 3 losses and 1 tie by following those criteria for betting.
Since 2003, this strategy’s record stands at 75-53-3, a great 58.4% winning percentage.
The logic behind the system is that the betting public tends to overrate playoff teams versus non-playoff teams.
There are six teams qualifying under this simple betting angle in Week 1 this year. Let’s review them one-by-one, while I also tell you whether I like the play or not.
PICK #1: ATLANTA FALCONS -3 (VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS)
Let me tell you right off the bat that I do like this potential wager.
Sure, facing T.J. Watt when you are coming back from an Achilles injury isn’t ideal conditions for Kirk Cousins. However, there are many arguments supporting the Falcons here.
First, I don’t agree with the decision of starting Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is suspect, so having a mobile QB would fit better. And I think Fields has done a fine job despite playing with limited weapons in Chicago.
The Steelers offense struggled mightily during the preseason. They scored an average of 10.7 points per game, which is dreadful.
Now, you may argue that Atlanta fared even worse by scoring just 8.3 points per game during preseason games. However, Kirk Cousins did not play a single snap, while Wilson and Fields were under center for a good portion of preseason games.
According to Footballguys.com, Atlanta’s offense line is the third-best in the league, while Pittsburgh’s is ranked 31st. That’s a big difference, and the betting public tends to underestimate the importance of the position.
The Falcons bolstered their defense with the recent acquisitions of linebacker Matt Judon and safety Justin Simmons. This unit should take a big leap forward in 2024.
As of now, only 26% of spread bets have gone on Atlanta. However, 58% of the total money has gone on the Falcons, which means big and sharp bettors are backing Atlanta in this meeting. I think this is the right move.
PICK #2: ARIZONA CARDINALS +6 (AT BUFFALO BILLS)
If you want to follow the betting system described earlier, pick number two goes to the Cardinals +6 points in Buffalo. This may be the pick I like the least, though, so please be cautious.
Arizona’s offense clicked as soon as Kyler Murray came back from an injury in Week 10. Murray now has one of the most promising wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr and a young and improving tight end in Trey McBride. The talk of Cards camp has been Greg Dortch, who could surprise many in the fantasy world.
How will Buffalo’s offense do with a revamped wide receiver group? Their two leaders in receiving yards from 2023 are gone: Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The team is set to roll with Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman. I’m not saying it’s a bad group, but it could take time to build chemistry with Josh Allen.
The main reason I’m not super confident about this bet is Arizona’s defense. I believe it could be the worst unit in the entire league, so can they hold on enough so that the Cards can cover the 6-point spread? I think they can, but I’m not necessarily betting my house on it.
PICK #3: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +2.5 (VS HOUSTON TEXANS)
Everybody is drinking the Texans Kool-Aid after an exciting first season by C.J. Stroud. It won’t necessarily be easy to get the W on the road against a divisional opponent.
The Colts also have a budding superstar under center in Anthony Richardson. He flashed as a rookie, but he runs without regard for his own safety, which led him to be knocked out. He has a good supporting cast and an improved offensive line in front of him.
The knock on Richardson is that he is prone to mistakes. He looked great at times during his lone preseason game, but then he threw an interception before fumbling the ball.
Houston’s new running back is Joe Mixon, formerly of the Bengals. He has missed a good portion of training camp, which means he missed valuable reps with his new team.
The Texans will have a great pass rushing duo with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. I am crossing my fingers that Richardson can avoid these guys.
PICK #4: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5 (AT TAMPA BAY BUCS)
Baker Mayfield revived his career with 28 TD passes versus 10 interceptions last season in his first year with the Bucs. However, I wonder whether he benefited from great play calling from Dave Canales. We’ll find out with their new offensive coordinator in 2024, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Mayfield came back to his old habits of being a mediocre quarterback.
Moreover, I’m not a fan of running back Rachaad White at all. If you are building a fantasy team, don’t draft this guy. He graded near the bottom in terms of elusiveness and efficiency last year.
Meanwhile, the Jayden Daniels era is set to begin in Washington. Daniels made 55 starts in the NCAA, so he is ready for the action. He’s been praised for his accuracy, his work ethic and his poise in the pocket. I have read a lot of good reports about him during training camp.
In short, the Commanders may not win this game, but I think the Bucs have much less than a 50% chance of winning this game by a margin of four points or more. That’s why I’m putting my hard-earned money on Washington with the extra 3.5 points. I like this play quite a bit, even though it didn’t make the cut as one of my premium picks for Week 1.
PICK #5: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 (AT MIAMI DOLPHINS)
NFL pick number five for Week 1, still following the betting system I explained earlier, goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 points in Miami.
Just like the Cardinals pick, I would go easy here. My biggest concern is how Miami’s offense clicked very well last year at home. We observed a huge difference whether they were at home or on the road.
Tua had major health issues in 2022, but fortunately his 2023 season went smoothly. Granted, his production decreased substantially during the second portion of the season. Have opposing defenses figured him out?
Let’s take a look at the hard numbers. In Tua’s first 10 games, he threw 21 TD passes versus 8 interceptions. During his final seven contests, he picked up just 8 touchdown passes versus 6 picks.
The Jags lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley, but they added Gabe Davis from Buffalo, while also drafting Brian Thomas out of LSU with the 23rd overall pick. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are back and should continue to pile up points in 2024.
So, in the end, I prefer to side with Jacksonville +3.5 points in Miami, even though I’m not overly confident about this play.
PICK #6: BALTIMORE RAVENS +3 (AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS)
The last game where we have a non-playoff team squaring off against a playoff team concerns the Monday night game. By using this system, we should be backing the New York Jets. I am likely to share my thoughts on this game in a future video.
For now, let me present my sixth NFL pick for Week 1, which also turns out to be one of my premium picks this week.
In the Thursday night game, I love the Baltimore Ravens +3 points in Kansas City.
First of all, we have the revenge factor on our side. Indeed, Baltimore got eliminated from the playoffs by losing 17-10 at home against the Chiefs.
I still wonder if John Harbaugh was drunk when he designed his game plan for that game. The Ravens had the best rushing attack in the league, and yet they rushed the ball 16 times while throwing it on 37 occasions. What were they thinking?
The team added Derrick Henry. Few people realize he racked up the second-most rushing yards last season despite opposing defenses loading the box to stop him. They won’t have the luxury to do that this year, otherwise Lamar Jackson could make them pay with his legs or his arm.
Also, Zay Flowers is likely to build off a solid rookie season where he finished with 858 receiving yards. The team also has a great duo at tight end with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. They have everything they need to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for a good portion of the game.
Sure, the game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, but I’m not overly concerned about that. Last season, the Ravens went 7-1 on the road. They may have the top defense in the league, along with a solid rushing attack. That’s a good combo when traveling on the road.
The Ravens are 7-2-1 against the spread the last 10 times they were established as underdogs.
Here is a final trend to notice: the road team in the inaugural game of Week 1 owns a 5-2 record ATS over the past seven years.
Well, let’s add another stat: over the past two years, the Chiefs are just 6-10-1 ATS at home.
To me, the Ravens could very well win this game. Marquise Brown is out. Rashee Rice had some legal issues during the offseason. Travis Kelce is 34 years old.
In short, the Chiefs are unlikely to dissect Baltimore’s defense. I think Baltimore has a good 60% chance of either winning the game straight up, or lose it by a maximum of three points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line dropped to 2.5 later this week, so I am jumping on the point spread of 3.
DO YOU WANT MY PREMIUM NFL PICKS?
I am offering 2 different products to help you beat your bookies this week:
- Silver Package = 3 Premium Picks for Week #1 (a $19 USD investment)
- Gold Package = 12 Premium Picks for Week #1 (a $60 USD investment)
It's been a pleasure discussing with you, I wish you all a great and lucrative 2024 NFL season!
Professor MJ
(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)
