NFL Super Bowl LVII Proposition Bets (Chiefs vs Eagles - 2022 regular season)

SUPER BOWL LVII PROP BETS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

 

I often mention that the most profitable bets of the year are the Super Bowl prop bets.

With such a high number of bets offered, there are always lines that are not very accurate. Astute gamblers can then take advantage of them.

Every year, I devote 50-to-100 hours to find good value wagers.

 

Over the past four Super Bowls, we have crushed it in a big way via an astounding 72-41-1 record (despite taking many bets at positive odds).

 

Without further ado, here are the bets I shared for Super Bowl LVII (Chiefs vs Eagles).

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #1 (LOSS)

 

Both teams to score in the first quarter? NO @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -154
  • BetMGM/bwin: -155
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -135
  • BetOnline: -150
  • FanDuel: -140

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #2 (LOSS)

 

C.J. Gardner-Johnson (PHI) over 5.5 tackles+assists @ +102 odds (or 2.02 in decimal) with FanDuel

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • William Hill Canada: -125
  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: -130
  • Bet365: -125
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -130

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #3 (WIN)

 

First offensive play will be a run @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with Sports Interaction

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -117 (or 1.85 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -130
  • BetMGM/bwin/Borgota: -135
  • Bookmaker: -145
  • BetOnline: -140
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -120

  

 

 

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #4 (LOSS)

 

Under 6.5 total TDs scored @ -155 odds (or 1.645 in decimal) with Bookmaker


Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -175 (or 1.57 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -210
  • Sports Interaction: -235
  • Bet99: -220
  • Stake: -217
  • Betway: -250

  

   

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #5 (PUSH)

 

Result of first coach’s challenge: overturned @ +106 odds (or 2.06 in decimal) with Bet99

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -110 (or 1.91 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -135
  • BetOnline: -125
  • Sports Interaction: -105 (also profitable!)
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -135

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #6 (LOSS)

 

Philadelphia Eagles to record over 2.5 sacks @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with BetOnline

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +7.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -122 (or 1.82 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -144
  • Bet365: -115 (also profitable!)
  • Bet99: -141
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -140
  • FanDuel: -150
  • Betway: -154

  

 

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #7 (LOSS)

 

Longest TD under 43.5 yards @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Bet365

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -154
  • Pinnacle: under 40.5 yards at -116
  • DraftKings/10Bet: under 40.5 yards at -115
  • FanDuel: under 39.5 yards at -110
  • Betway: -118 (also profitable!)

  

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #8 (WIN)

 

Kenneth Gainwell over 18.5 rushing yards @ -113 odds (or 1.88 in decimal) with BetRivers, Unibet, Sugar House, Barstool and LeoVegas sportsbooks and also @ -114 odds with FanDuel

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal). At 19.5 rushing yards: -105 (1.95 decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -138
  • Bookmaker: over 19.5 at -123
  • DraftKings: over 19.5 at -125

  

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #9 (WIN)

 

Kansas City Chiefs to record under 2.5 sacks @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with Coolbet, -107 odds (or 1.93 in decimal) with Bet99, -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with DraftKings, 10Bet, Heritage and WagerWeb.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -114 (or 1.88 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -130
  • Bet365: -130
  • Bookmaker: -120
  • BetRivers/Unibet/Sugar House/Barstool: -129
  • Betway: -134

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #10 (LOSS)

 

Jalen Hurts under 242.5 passing yards @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with Coolbet, or -112 odds with BetRivers, Unibet, Sugar House, Barstool and LeoVegas, or under 241.5 passing yards at -115 odds with Heritage and Wager Web.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: - (or 1. in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: under 241.5 yards at -145 odds
  • Pinnacle: under 240.5 yards at -119 odds
  • Sports Interaction: under 240.5 yards at 135 odds
  • Bet99: under 237.5 yards at -121 odds
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: under 240.5 yards at -142 odds

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #11 (LOSS)

 

Jerick McKinnon (KC) longest rush under 8.5 yards @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with BetMGM, bwin, Borgota and Party Poker, or -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with Bet365.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -115 (or 1.87 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -127
  • Bookmaker: -130
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -125
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -135
  • Coolbet: -125

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #12 (WIN)

 

Kansas City Chiefs under 0.5 field goals made in 1st half @ +150 odds (or 2.50 in decimal) with DraftKings and 10Bet.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +9.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +135 (or 2.35 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: +115
  • BetRivers/Unibet: +120
  • BetMGM/bwin: +115
  • Betway: +110
  • Coolbet: +120

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #13 (LOSS)

 

Kansas City Chiefs under 0.5 touchdowns scored in 1st quarter @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with DraftKings and 10Bet. Borderline acceptable at -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with Coolbet, Bet365, BetMGM, bwin, Borgota and Party Poker.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -125 (or 1.80 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -142
  • Bookmaker: -150
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -150
  • Betway: -134

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #14 (LOSS)

 

Isiah Pacheco (KC) over 14.5 receiving yards @ -113 odds (or 1.88 in decimal) with BetRivers, Unibet, Sugar House, Barstool and LeoVegas sportsbook, or -115 odds (i.e. 1.87 in decimal) with Betway, or -122 odds (i.e. 1.82 in decimal) with Heritage and Wager Web.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -128 (or 1.78 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -147
  • Bookmaker: -144
  • Many sportsbooks with 15.5 receiving yards at odds between -110 and -125 (i.e. between 1.91 and 1.80 in decimal)

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #15 (WIN)

 

Kansas City Chiefs under 1.5 turnovers @ -154 odds (or 1.65 in decimal) with Bet99.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -165 (or 1.61 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -200
  • BetOnline: -190
  • DraftKings/10Bet: -210
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -167 (borderline acceptable…)

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #16 (LOSS)

 

Will both teams complete their first pass attempt? NO @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with DraftKings sportsbook.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +10.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -130 (or 1.77 in decimal).

 

Calculations explaining the pick:

Several sportsbooks have posted lines on whether each quarterback is going to complete his first passing attempt. Based on those lines, Mahomes holds a 66.3% chance of completing his first pass, while Hurts’ percentage stands at around 65.1%.

P(both QBs complete their first pass) = P(Mahomes completes his first pass) * P(Hurts completes his first pass) = 0.663 * 0.651 = 0.432 = 43.2%.

If you convert this probability into odds, that means the fair odds on “Will both teams complete their first passing attempt?”are:

  • Yes at +132 odds
  • No at -132 odds

Given that DraftKings is offering -105 on “No”, that is incredible value! For your information, I found this bet under “Game Props.”

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #17 (WIN)

 

Under 7.5 punts @ -125 odds (or 1.80 in decimal) with Bet99 sportsbook.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -143 (or 1.70 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -150
  • Bookmaker: -168
  • DraftKings: -190
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -175
  • Betway: -154

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #18 (WIN)

 

Highest scoring quarter total points over 20.5 @ +132 odds (or 2.32 in decimal) with FanDuel.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.6%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +122 (or 2.22 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: +105
  • DraftKings: +110
  • Caesars: +100

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #19 (LOSS)

 

Distance of first TD pass by Patrick Mahomes under 10.5 yards @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with DraftKings (under “Super Bowl Specials”).

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.6%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -124 (or 1.81 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • FanDuel: -142
  • Pinnacle: under 9.5 yards at -128 odds
  • Bookmaker: under 9.5 yards at -132 odds

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #20 (LOSS)

 

Team to score first field goal: Kansas City Chiefs @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with BetOnline, Coolbet and EveryGame sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +2.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -111 (or 1.90 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -131
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -122
  • Betway: -118

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #21 (WIN)

 

Quez Watkins (PHI) under 1.5 receptions @ -140 odds (or 1.714 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook, or -145 odds (i.e. 1.69 in decimal) with Betway, or -150 odds (i.e. 1.67 in decimal) with William Hill Canada, BetMGM, bwin, Borgota, Party Poker sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -152 (or 1.66 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -187
  • Pinnacle: -163
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -177
  • Bet99: -186
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -174

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #22 (WIN)

 

Juan Thornhill (KC) under 5.5 tackles+assists @ -135 odds (or 1.74 in decimal) with Sports Interaction, Heritage and Wager Web sportsbooks, or -138 odds (i.e. 1.724 in decimal) with Betway.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -150 (or 1.67 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bet365: -155
  • Bookmaker: -175
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -190
  • William Hill Canada: -163
  • BetMGM/bwin: -160
  • DraftKings: -180
  • FanDuel: -194
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -189

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #23 (WIN)

 

Team with most penalty yards: Philadelphia Eagles @ +131 odds (or 2.31 in decimal) with Bookmaker.eu

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +120 (or 2.20 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetRivers/Unibet: -104
  • BetOnline: +110
  • Bet99: -108
  • Betway: -118
  • Coolbet: +100

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #24 (WIN)

 

Will there be a roughing the passer penalty? NO @ -160 odds (or 1.625 in decimal) with Bovada and Bodog sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -190 (or 1.53 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetRivers/Unibet: -250
  • BetOnline: -200
  • Coolbet: -270

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #25 (WIN)

 

Both teams to score in 4th quarter: YES @ -185 odds (or 1.54 in decimal) with Bet365 sportsbook.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -222 (or 1.45 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • DraftKings: -270
  • Bovada/Bodog: -280
  • FanDuel: -290

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #26 (WIN)

 

Will either team score 3 unanswered times? NO @ +185 odds (or 2.85 in decimal) with Sports Interaction, or +175 odds (i.e. 2.75 in decimal) with Bet365.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.0%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +174 (or 2.74 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetRivers/Unibet: +145
  • Pinnacle: +166
  • BetMGM/bwin: +135
  • Bookmaker: +162
  • Bet99: +150
  • DraftKings: +130
  • Bovada/Bodog: +135
  • FanDuel: +152
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: +160
  • Betway: +140
  • Coolbet: +145

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #27 (LOSS)

 

Patrick Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions @ +105 odds (or 2.05 in decimal) with BetMBM, bwin, Borgota, Party Poker and Bet365 sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.9%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -103 (or 1.97 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Bookmaker: -126
  • Pinnacle: -117
  • Sports Interaction: -130
  • Bet99: -136
  • FanDuel: -122

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #28 (LOSS)

 

Justin Watson (KC) under 1.5 receptions @ -120 odds (or 1.83 in decimal) with Sports Interaction, or -132 odds (i.e. 1.76 in decimal) with Coolbet, or -134 odds (i.e. 1.75 in decimal) with Betway.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.3%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -135 (or 1.74 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -184
  • DraftKings: -160
  • William Hill Canada: -150
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -195
  • Bookmaker: -150
  • Bet365: -160

  

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #29 (LOSS)

 

Under 1.0 total fumbles @ +115 odds (or 2.15 in decimal) with Wager Web and Heritage

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +23.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -135 (or 1.74 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetOnline: -150
  • Bookmaker: -152

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #30 (LOSS)

 

Will the team will less net yards win the game? NO @ -165 odds (or 1.61 in decimal) with Caesars and all William Hill USA sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +1.8%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -173 (or 1.58 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • BetMGM/bwin: -180
  • FanDuel: -200
  • Bovada/Bodog: -220
  • Coolbet: -200

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #31 (LOSS)

 

Will the opening kickoff be a touchback? NO @ +148 odds (or 2.48 in decimal) with Bet99, or +140 odds (i.e. 2.40 in decimal) with DraftKings.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: +138 (or 2.38 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: +123
  • BetRivers/Unibet: +111
  • Bovada/Bodog: +120
  • FanDuel: +130
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: +125
  • Betway: +100
  • Wager Web / Heritage: +110
  • Coolbet: +115

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #32 (LOSS)

 

Will there be a score in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter? NO @ -110 odds (or 1.91 in decimal) with Coolbet, or -118 odds (i.e. 1.85 in decimal) with BetRivers, Unibet, Sugar House, Barstool and LeoVegas sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +4.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -121 (or 1.83 in decimal).

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #33 (WIN)

 

Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game? YES @ +105 odds (or 2.05 in decimal) with Coolbet.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +6.4%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -108 (or 1.926 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -119
  • Bookmaker: -120
  • BetOnline: -130
  • Bovada/Bodog: -130
  • Wager Web / Heritage: -130

 

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #34 (WIN)

 

Harrison Butker (KC) over 2.5 extra points made @ -103 odds (or 1.97 in decimal) with Coolbet.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.7%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -111 (or 1.90 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • William Hill Canada: -125
  • BetMGM/bwin: -130
  • DraftKings: -130
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -131
  • Betway: -134

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #35 (WIN)

 

Jalen Hurts to score a TD @ +112 odds (or 2.12 in decimal) with Stake sportsbook, or +110 odds (i.e. 2.10 in decimal) with Bet365 and Coolbet sportsbooks, or +100 odds (i.e. 2.00 in decimal) with William Hill Canada, FanDuel and Betway sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +8.1%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -104 (or 1.96 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -111
  • Bookmaker: -130
  • Bet99: -130
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -125

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #36 (WIN)

 

Miles Sanders (PHI) will NOT score a TD @ -105 odds (or 1.95 in decimal) with Wager Web and Heritage sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +5.2%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -117 (or 1.854 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -139
  • EveryGame: -125
  • FanDuel: -170
  • Stake: -195
  • Bookmaker: -122 (close to being profitable)

  

 

SUPER BOWL PROP BET #37 (WIN)

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) longest reception under 17.5 yards @ -115 odds (or 1.87 in decimal) with Bet365, BetMGM, bwin, Borgota and Party Poker sportsbooks.

 

Estimated ROI with those odds: +3.5%

 

Minimum acceptable odds: -124 (or 1.81 in decimal).

 

Odds from another online sportsbook (which shows you the bet above is indeed a bargain):

  • Pinnacle: -135
  • BetRivers/Unibet: -137
  • Bookmaker: under 16.5 yards at -124
  • DraftKings: -130
  • FanDuel: under 16.5 yards at -125
  • Caesars/William Hill USA: -157

Professor MJ

(Sports Betting Expert / University Professor / PhD in statistics)