Professor MJ's 2017 NBA Playoffs Projections: April 15 and 16
NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
Yes, the NBA playoffs are finally upon us! Most of the first-round matchups may not be very close. In the Eastern Conference, there was a fairly big gap between the top 4 and the rest of the teams (the Hawks finished in 5th place with 6 games back of the Wizards who got the 4th seed).
Will we see a rematch of the Cavaliers-Warriors finals? The Celtics and Spurs have other plans. Can the Raptors or the Wizards rise to the challenge and make a strong push to make it to the finals? According to the bookmakers, the Warriors hold a 62.7% chance of winning the title. It then drops to 20.9% for Cleveland and 11.1% for San Antonio (the Spurs are viewed as a better team than the Cavaliers, but they have a tougher road to the championship).
This report projects game #1 of each series. Enjoy the read!
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APRIL 15, 2017 |
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SPREAD |
MONEY LINE |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Pacers |
+8,5 |
+7,7 |
+358 |
+324 |
4,58 |
4,24 |
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2,5% |
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Cavaliers |
-8,5 |
-7,7 |
-415 |
-324 |
1,24 |
1,31 |
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-7,3% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Bucks |
+7 |
+7,1 |
+270 |
+287 |
3,70 |
3,87 |
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-2,9% |
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Raptors |
-7 |
-7,1 |
-307 |
-287 |
1,33 |
1,35 |
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-2,1% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Grizzlies |
+9 |
+9,3 |
+412 |
+449 |
5,12 |
5,49 |
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-4,0% |
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Spurs |
-9 |
-9,3 |
-485 |
-449 |
1,21 |
1,22 |
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-0,7% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Jazz |
+5,5 |
+3,5 |
+191 |
+154 |
2,91 |
2,54 |
X |
14,0% |
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Clippers |
-5,5 |
-3,5 |
-213 |
-154 |
1,47 |
1,65 |
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-18,8% |
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Tip: Bet the Jazz. |
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APRIL 16, 2017 |
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SPREAD |
MONEY LINE |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
|
Hawks |
+5 |
+5,9 |
+185 |
+232 |
2,85 |
3,32 |
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-9,8% |
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Wizards |
-5 |
-5,9 |
-206 |
-232 |
1,49 |
1,43 |
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5,0% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
|
Blazers |
+14,5 |
+14,6 |
+1289 |
+1609 |
13,89 |
17,09 |
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-2,5% |
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Warriors |
-14,5 |
-14,6 |
-2000 |
-1609 |
1,05 |
1,06 |
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-2,3% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Bulls |
+7,5 |
+5,8 |
+295 |
+231 |
3,95 |
3,31 |
X |
11,6% |
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Celtics |
-7,5 |
-5,8 |
-337 |
-231 |
1,30 |
1,43 |
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-16,3% |
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Tip: Bet the Bulls. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Thunder |
+7,5 |
+7,1 |
+289 |
+288 |
3,89 |
3,88 |
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0,9% |
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Rockets |
-7,5 |
-7,1 |
-330 |
-288 |
1,30 |
1,35 |
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-5,7% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):
I’ll be honest with you; I’m not super excited about this one. But my methodology is telling me to take the Jazz +5.5 at the Clippers. Utah lost 3 of the 4 meetings this season, including two losses at the Staples Center by a 13-point margin. The Clippers have also won 8 of the past 10 matchups with the Jazz, as they went 6-4 against the spread on those games. Both teams finished the season pretty strong. LA is currently riding a 7-game winning streak and has even won 11 of their past 13 contests! The Jazz have nothing to be ashamed of after winning 8 of their final 11 games. They even beat the top 2 seeds in the Western Conference (San Antonio and Golden State) to close out the season. Sure, some starters were rested towards the end of each game, but Utah was keeping pace when all the starters were on the court.
“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):
I’m betting the Bulls +7.5 in Boston. Make no mistake about it: the Celtics are a good team. But I believe you’ll agree with me that number one seeds usually strike more fear into the hearts of their opponents. They finished the season with a +2.7 point differential (average points scored per game – average points allowed per game) which has them 8th in the NBA in this category. Meanwhile, the Bulls pretty much looked dead when Dwayne Wade got hurt and the team was losing most of its games. But suddenly out of nowhere they went on to win 7 of their last 9 games to clinch a playoff spot in their regular season finale. What’s interesting with this team is they had a tendency to lose to weaker teams but had enough talent to beat the very best. They are probably happy that the playoffs only feature good teams! They swept the 4-game series against Cleveland this season. They went 2-2 against Boston. They won 2 games out of 3 against Toronto (the only loss occurring in overtime). They split the 2-game season series both with the Warriors and the Spurs. They can be dangerous. They have a fairly good amount of playoff experience, and Rajon Rondo will be playing with a chip on his shoulder by facing his former team. My gut feeling likes this pick better than the one above.
Enjoy the playoffs everyone!
Professor MJ
