NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

It’s been an interesting start to the NBA playoffs with 3 upsets already (Bulls, Bucks and Jazz). We’ve found 2 value bets and both hit nicely. Let’s move on to project tonight’s 3 matches:

APRIL 18, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bucks	+7,5	+7,1	+292	+287	3,92	3,87		0,9%
Raptors	-7,5	-7,1	-333	-287	1,30	1,35		-5,7%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bulls	+7	+5,8	+260	+231	3,60	3,31	X	7,5%
Celtics	-7	-5,8	-295	-231	1,34	1,43		-12,2%
Tip: Bet the Bulls.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Jazz	+9	+5,4	+365	+214	4,65	3,14	X	25,5%
Clippers	-9	-5,4	-425	-214	1,24	1,47		-30,3%
Tip: Bet the Jazz.

 

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m betting the Jazz +9 at the Clippers. I took Utah +5.5 in Game #1 as a 3-star bet a few days ago since my projections had them as 3.5-point underdogs. Austin Rivers is still out for the Clippers; the only difference is the Jazz will be missing their starting center Rudy Gobert. I have deducted 7.6% to Utah’s estimated win probability which has made my projected spread go from +3.5 to +5.4. In other words, I moved the line by 1.9 points to account for this piece of information. However, Vegas moved its line by 3.5 points, which makes this bet even more profitable than it was in Game #1 (thus the 5-star rating).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

I’m taking the Bulls +7 in Boston. The mix of my statistical models and my own judgement picked the Bulls +7.5 in the first game of the series as a 2-star bet; Chicago still provides value despite the half-point reduction, but the bet is downgraded to a single star. No new injuries have come up, so my projections remain the same as before on this game.

 

Have a good day everyone!

Professor MJ

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