FREE NBA PICKS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

One game caught my eye immediately, and it turns out to be a 5-star value bet. Here are the projections on all three games from tonight:

APRIL 21, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Celtics	+1	-1,3	-102	-111	1,98	1,90		4,2%
Bulls	-1	+1,3	-108	+111	1,93	2,11		-8,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Rockets	+2,5	-2,8	+125	-137	2,25	1,73	X	30,1%
Thunder	-2,5	+2,8	-138	+137	1,72	2,37		-34,9%
Tip: Bet the Rockets.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Clippers	-1,5	-1	-117	-107	1,85	1,93		-5,6%
Jazz	+1,5	+1	+106	+107	2,06	2,07		0,8%
Tip: No value bet.

 

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I like the Rockets +2.5 in Oklahoma City. A pretty strange thing is happening here. In Game #2 played in Houston my statistical models were telling me the Thunder had a 25.8% chance of winning the game, which led me to bet on them (a game in which they lost, but were still able to cover the spread). The series now shifts to OKC, so with a home-field advantage of 8.2% in the NBA the Thunder’s estimated win probability becomes 25.8% + (8.2% * 2) = 42.2% (as explained in yesterday’s report). This probability translates into the following money lines: Rockets -137 versus Thunder +137, or in terms of the spread we are projecting Houston as a 2.8-point favorite. That’s totally different from what the bookies are offering us, where they view OKC as a 2.5-point favorite. So basically we go from betting the Thunder in Houston to betting the Rockets in Oklahoma City. Go figure.

Houston has beaten OKC in the last 5 previous meetings. It gets even better when you look at their performance against the spread: they are 8-2 over the last 10 contests when facing the Thunder. These two teams played twice at Chesapeake Energy Arena this season: the Rockets lost by 2 points and won by 3 (both pretty early in the season).

Happy Friday!

Professor MJ