Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-02-15

NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

February 15^th, 2017

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

After a day where there were no profitable bets, we have 9 tonight! Busy day in perspective… Let’s have a look at the details:

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

The bet I like the most today is Minnesota (spread +6 or money line +219) with a ROI of about 23%. Yes, they are playing the second of back-to-game games, but even when you take this information into account they still provide good value. The Nuggets are coming off an emotional win against the Warriors despite missing 6 players (3 starters). Tonight they will be without Gallinari, Chandler, Mudiay and Faried (their 1^st, 3^rd, 6^th and 7^th best scorers). I expect a letdown, and the numbers indicate to take the Timberwolves. I also like it when the public is betting heavily on a team, yet the line is not moving that much. This is the case, as 82% of the money has been on Denver (as of 3pm).

My system is picking the Pacers for a second straight game (after tying a bet at home against the Spurs). Thaddeus Young is out for Indiana, while Love and J.R. Smith are out for Cleveland. I added 4% to Indiana’s chances of winning because of that. I mentioned in a previous post that playing the second of back-to-back games makes a team’s chances of winning 75%-80% of what it would be if rested (according to a Harvard study). After making such an adjustment (Cleveland was playing yesterday), I get winning probabilities of 39.3% for Indiana versus 60.7% for Cleveland. As of 3pm, 75% of the money has been going Cleveland’s way. I like it. Take the Pacers +6 or straight up +214.

“GOOD” BETS (3 stars / 5):

Charlotte is close to being rated 4 stars. The projections assume newly acquired Ibaka has a 50% chance of playing his first game as a Raptor tonight. Like Cleveland, Toronto was playing last night so fatigue might come into play. Both teams have been struggling of late (both on a 3-game losing skid). I expect a dog fight, and a close game.

Life without Parker continues for the Bucks. Surprisingly, they have won both games since he got hurt. We expect them to hit a wall tonight. The lowly Nets have lost their last 15 home games, but they have been coming close recently. As a matter of fact, their last 7 home losses have been by single digits. 78% of the money has been going on Milwaukee. Take Brooklyn +6 or straight up +222.

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

Take the Knicks +7 (money line +256) in Oklahoma City. If the line moves to +6.5, proceed with caution, or don’t bet at all.

The statistical models indicate the Blazers should be underdogs by 7.5, but they can be had at +8.5. The numbers like Portland, and we also note they have beaten Utah 10 of the last 13 games. The Jazz are coming off a brutal game, where we picked the Clippers as a 5 stars bet (they beat the line by 24 points!).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

One of the few favorites that I like tonight is Memphis. They are 8-point favorites, but the statistical models see them as 10-point favorites. New Orleans will be without their third-best scorer Terrence Jones, as well as Dante Cunningham who is 5^th in the team for minutes played per game. Memphis has the 3^rd best defense in the league (points per game). Take Memphis -8.

I’m not extremely confident about this one, but I’m taking the Magic +10.5 at home against the Spurs. Let’s see how Orlando reacts following the Ibaka trade.

My last pick of the day: Clippers -3.5 against the Hawks (or -155 straight up, while it should be -180 according to our numbers). LA is missing their second-best scorer Chris Paul, and we accounted for this fact by deducting 7.5% to their chances of winning the game. It still ends up as a profitable bet (ROI 5.8%). If the line gets worse than -160 (i.e. lower than 1.625), don’t bet this game though.

I hope I was able to bring some insight. Keep gambling fun, and enjoy the games!

Professor MJ