Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NBA Projections: 2017-03-02
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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
March 2nd, 2017
Only 3 games tonight, but strangely enough we have 3 value bets. Here are the full projections for the day:
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MARCH 2, 2017 |
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SPREAD |
MONEY LINE |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Warriors |
-7.5 |
-4.7 |
-350 |
-186 |
1,29 |
1,54 |
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-16,4% |
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Bulls |
+7.5 |
+4.7 |
+305 |
+186 |
4,05 |
2,86 |
X |
41,6% |
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Tip: Bet the Bulls. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Hornets |
-4 |
-2.3 |
-173 |
-126 |
1,58 |
1,79 |
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-12,0% |
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Suns |
+4 |
+2.3 |
+156 |
+126 |
2,56 |
2,26 |
X |
13,3% |
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Tip: Bet the Suns. |
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Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROF. MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Thunder |
-1 |
-2.7 |
-108 |
-133 |
1,93 |
1,75 |
X |
9,9% |
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Blazers |
+1 |
+2.7 |
-102 |
+133 |
1,98 |
2,33 |
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-15,0% |
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Tip: Bet the Thunder. |
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“AMAZING BET” (5 stars / 5):
Here we go again betting against the top NBA team, the Warriors. Two days after recommending betting the Wizards +6 at home against Golden State, this time I’m going with Chicago +7.5.
I deducted 7% to the Warriors’ estimated win probability to account for the loss of star player Kevin Durant, combined with the fact that the Bulls no longer have Gibson and McDermott (which is a plus for Golden State, obviously). The Warriors are playing a 3rd game in 4 nights (4th in 6 days), while the Bulls are well-rested having played one match over the past 4 days.
Earlier this season the Warriors beat the Bulls 123-92 in Golden State, but it should be reminded that Chicago was without their best two players, Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade. Golden State has won the last 3 meetings between these two teams.
“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):
I’m picking the Suns +4 at home against Charlotte. The Hornets have lost 12 of 13 games followed by 2 wins in 3 games, where the only loss came in overtime at the Clippers. So they are showing signs of improvement, which concerns me to a certain extent. Tonight’s game will be the Hornets’ fourth in 6 days (all on the road).
“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
The line opened with the Thunder as 1.5-point underdogs, while they are now 1-point favorites. I’m banking on them to win this one. It’s close to being a 2-star bet, and to be honest my gut feeling likes this pick more than the Suns, but we’ll see how it plays out.
Oklahoma City has lost their last 4 road games, but 3 of them were against top teams: Washington, Indiana, San Antonio and Cleveland. They are riding a 4-game win streak (all at home of course). The acquisitions of Gibson and McDermott give them more depth. Oladipo is probable and I sure hope he plays tonight.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a bad streak, having lost 5 of their last 6 games (7 of their last 9). However, they have beaten the Thunder 5 straight times at home. In fact, the home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two teams. I’m betting on this trend to end.
Have a good day everyone!
Professor MJ
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