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NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

March 3^rd, 2017

 

Several people over the last few weeks have been asking me about my record per star rating. I never took the time to do it, mostly because making the daily projections and doing the write-ups was already eating up most of it. I finally did it yesterday, and here is what it looks like (if some people want to double-check they are more than welcome):

• 5 STARS = 3-2
• 4 STARS = 2-1-1
• 3 STARS = 3-1
• 2 STARS = 3-3
• 1 STAR = 9-12

Overall I’m 20-19-1 which is ordinary, but if you only focus on 3+ stars I’m pleased with my 8-4-1 record.

The numbers above are based on bets placed on the spread, of course. How do I determine the star rating? Solely on my estimated ROI (Return On Investment). Here is how it goes:

• 5 STARS = ROI of 30%+
• 4 STARS = ROI between 20% and 29.99%
• 3 STARS = ROI between 15% and 19.99%
• 2 STARS = ROI between 10% and 14.99%
• 1 STAR = ROI between 5% and 9.99%

Basically, I don’t consider a ROI below 5% to be a value bet.

Note: on February 23^rd I called Kings +7 vs Nuggets as a 4-star bet, but I clearly messed up because my estimated ROI was 33.2%. In other words, it was a 5-star bet, and I made the correction in the numbers above to make it more coherent with what I’ve done so far. I hope you don’t mind.

Let’s get to business! I’m pretty disappointed with today’s projections. Why? I worked hard analyzing the 10 games, but I only end up with 2 value bets, both rated 1 star. Based on my 9-12 record on such bets, I leave it up to you to decide if you want to tail those bets or not (do you trust this record will improve in the future?). In other words, nothing exciting today. Sorry about that, but I can’t do anything about it: it looks like the lines are sharp today. Here are the details:

MARCH 3, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Knicks	-2	-1.7	-124	-115	1,81	1,87		-3,4%
76ers	+2	+1.7	+112	+115	2,12	2,15		-1,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Raptors	+5	+5.8	+184	+233	2,84	3,33		-14,7%
Wizards	-5	-5.8	-205	-233	1,49	1,43		4,1%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Heat	-3.5	-3.7	-167	-159	1,60	1,63		-1,8%
Magic	+3.5	+3.7	+151	+159	2,51	2,59		-3,1%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Cavaliers	-3	-1.8	-147	-116	1,68	1,86		-9,8%
Hawks	+3	+1.8	+133	+116	2,33	2,16	X	7,9%
Tip: Bet the Hawks.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Clippers	-3.5	-4.5	-169	-183	1,59	1,55		2,9%
Bucks	+3.5	+4.5	+152	+183	2,52	2,83		-11,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Grizzlies	-3	-3.2	-145	-144	1,69	1,69		-0,3%
Mavericks	+3	+3.2	+131	+144	2,31	2,44		-5,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Nets	+13.5	+12.9	+944	+1011	10,44	11,11		-6,0%
Jazz	-13.5	-12.9	-1300	-1011	1,08	1,10		-2,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Thunder	-4.5	-4.2	-180	-171	1,56	1,58		-1,8%
Suns	+4.5	+4.2	+162	+171	2,62	2,71		-3,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Spurs	-6.5	-4.2	-260	-207	1,38	1,48		-6,6%
Pelicans	+6.5	+4.2	+231	+207	3,31	3,07	X	7,8%
Tip: Bet the Pelicans.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Celtics	-7.5	-7.6	-343	-318	1,29	1,31		-1,7%
Lakers	+7.5	+7.6	+300	+318	4,00	4,18		-4,3%
Tip: No value bet.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

• My system likes the Hawks +3 (money line +133 / 2.33) at home against Cleveland. The line may be underestimating the impact of the absence of starters Kevin Love and JR Smith. However, Cleveland picked up veteran Deron Williams. The Cavaliers have lost 2 of their last 3 games, while the Hawks have rebounded nicely since a three-game skid by posting a 114-98 win in Boston and beating Dallas 100-95 at home. Atlanta beat the Cavs in Cleveland 110-106 earlier this year. Here is one more thing I like about this pick: 87% of the bets have been placed on the Cavs, and yet the line is not moving (it even opened at 3.5 in certain books, so it went down!?!). That’s a sign sharps are betting Atlanta, and I like the sound of it. To be honest with you, my gut feeling views this bet more like a 2-star bet, but I need to stay consistent with the methodology.
• Grab the Pelicans +6.5 at home against the Spurs. Newly-acquired star DeMarcus Cousins has been recording points since joining the Pelicans, but it hasn’t translated into wins yet, as shown by their 0-3 record. The chemistry will continue to build and things will definitely improve for the team, and the 6.5 spread seems too big. Cousins will be back from a one-game suspension, which means he will be rested and really motivated to win its first game in front of his new fans. It will be the 4^th matchup between these two teams this season. The Spurs won the first 2 at home, while the Pelicans got an impressive 119-103 win in New Orleans on January 27^th. Also note that Ginobili said he’d either miss tonight’s game, or tomorrow’s game for the Spurs.

 

Please note that I have a new domain name for my website: www.professormj.com. The old name (www.basketball-live-betting.com) still works and will redirect you. If you don’t mind, I would like to take this opportunity to invite your friends to join us (if they like sports betting, of course!). Thanks for helping me grow this community of smart sports investors!!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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