NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

March 13^th, 2017

 

It’s funny how I found no value bets out of 8 games last Friday, but now I have 5 out of 6 games tonight (the line is off the board on two games at this time of writing. I might provide projections on those games later on, but no promises). Let’s try to start the week on the right foot!

MARCH 13, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bulls	+7	+5,4	+269	+212	3,69	3,12	X	10,7%
Hornets	-7	-5,4	-305	-212	1,33	1,47		-15,5%
Tip: Bet the Bulls.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Mavericks	+4	+5,8	+160	+229	2,60	3,29		-17,1%
Raptors	-4	-5,8	-178	-229	1,56	1,44		12,4%
Tip: Bet the Raptors.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bucks	+4	+5	+155	+198	2,55	2,98		-10,6%
Grizzlies	-4	-5	-172	-198	1,58	1,51	X	5,8%
Tip: Bet the Grizzlies.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Wizards	+1	-2,9	+102	-140	2,02	1,71	X	21,4%
Twolves	-1	+2,9	-113	+140	1,88	2,40		-26,2%
Tip: Bet the Wizards.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Magic	0	+1,5	-102	+114	1,98	2,14		-7,5%
Kings	0	-1,5	-108	-114	1,93	1,88		2,6%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Lakers	+12,5	+10,8	+767	+626	8,67	7,26	X	11,6%
Nuggets	-12,5	-10,8	-1000	-626	1,10	1,16		-16,3%
Tip: Bet the Lakers.

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend going with the Wizards +1 in Minnesota. Washington is riding a 5-game winning streak (including 7 of their last 8). The Timberwolves were also on a good stretch, having won 8 of their last 12 games before losing in Milwaukee Saturday night. The only previous meeting between these two teams ended 112-105 in favor of Washington at home. The last matchup in Minnesota occurred about a year ago, where the Wizards took it 104-98. Both teams will be playing a 3^rd game in 4 nights, and also a fourth game in six days. I did deduct some percentage points to Washington because tonight’s match will be their 5^th game in only 7 nights. Still, they are looking stronger and stronger and the acquisition of Bogdanovic has certainly helped their cause.

 

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

I like the Bulls +7 in Charlotte. I feel like my projections have the Bulls less of an underdog compared to the line because of two things: 1) Chicago was awful in front of national audience in Boston yesterday, scoring only 9 points in the first quarter. The general public may be overreacting following such a bad performance. 2) Yes, the Bulls will be playing the second of back-to-back games, but it’s not like Charlotte is a well-rested team either, as tonight’s game will be their 3^rd in 4 days. I did penalize the Bulls for the B2B, but maybe not as much as most people did. In injury-related news, Kaminsky is doubtful to play for the Hornets since this will be the 7^th day of what was called a 10-14 days injury. These two teams have met twice this year: Charlotte won 103-91 at home, while Chicago won 118-111 in Chicago. I’m a bit worried about Charlotte beating the Bulls at home on 4 straight occasions, all by double digits.

I also suggest taking the Raptors -4 versus Dallas. The Mavericks had won 6 of 7 games before losing unexpectedly at home against the lowly Suns. That might shake their confidence. The Raptors have had some trouble scoring since losing Kyle Lowry to an injury, but they hope to rebound at home after playing 5 games on the road.

The projections are telling me to go with the Lakers +12.5 in Denver. It certainly does not feel like a sure bet backing a team shuffling its lineup and giving more playing time to rookies. In the two previous meetings, Denver won by 6 and lost by 4 (both games in Los Angeles). The Nuggets have won 5 of their last 7, but have been pretty inconsistent throughout the year. The Lakers are 1-9 recently. My personal feeling likes the Bulls bet much better than the Lakers even though both have a 2-star rating. We’ll see!

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, after taking the Bucks as a 4-star bet two ago, I’m going against them tonight: take Memphis -4 versus the Bucks. These two teams are headed in complete opposite directions. The Bucks are on a 6-game winning streak, while Memphis has lost 5 straight (8 of their last 11). The last 4 meetings in Memphis between these two teams have all gone in favor of the Grizzlies by the following margins: 20, 13, 9 and 10. I’m banking on Memphis to wake up tonight.

 

With so many new followers, I often get asked which bookmakers/sportsbooks I recommend. You can have a look at the "Best Bookies" page, but I will mention two here that are reliable:

1) If you are American/Canadian and you want great bonuses (whether you are a first-time user or you are reloading your account), I'd go with Betonline:

 

2) If you want the best odds possible, despite not getting any signup bonus, go with Pinnacle (notice they don't accept US players). Click below to join them:

 

 

Update on my per-star record:

• 5 STARS = 5-2
• 4 STARS = 5-2-1
• 3 STARS = 4-2
• 2 STARS = 4-5
• 1 STAR = 11-13

Overall: 29-24-1 (win percentage = 54.7%).

On 3-4-5 star bets: 14-6-1 (win percentage = 70.0%). Notice that I have a losing record on bets rated 1 or 2 star(s), so take that into consideration when making your decision to tail my bets or not.

Have fun watching the games tonight!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

Come join my Facebook group! https://www.facebook.com/groups/ProfessorMJ/