NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

March 15^th, 2017

 

Things have gone in a strange way over the last 4 days. Since I started posting my NBA picks on the web, I had been much more successful with my bets rated 3-4-5 stars as opposed to 1-2 stars: 13-6-1 in the former case versus 15-18 in the latter. That was up to March 10^th. Since then, I have gone 1-2 on 3+ stars versus 5-1 on 1-2 stars. Weird! The overall record now sits at 34-27-1 (55.7%).

Today I’ve got a 4-star bet for you, along with three 1-star bets. Should you trust the last three picks? Who knows? As usual you are the final decision-maker; I am only here to provide as much additional insight as I can. The projections on all games (except Lakers-Rockets because I hate games where the spread is huge) are shown below:

MARCH 15, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Mavericks	+7	+9,2	+273	+441	3,73	5,41	X	-20,4%
Wizards	-7	-9,2	-310	-441	1,32	1,23		15,7%
Tip: Bet the Wizards.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Hornets	+3	+2,2	+129	+121	2,29	2,21		4,2%
Pacers	-3	-2,2	-143	-121	1,70	1,83		-8,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Twolves	+6	+6,9	+222	+279	3,22	3,79		-9,8%
Celtics	-6	-6,9	-250	-279	1,40	1,36		5,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Pelicans	+6,5	+5,5	+222	+217	3,22	3,17	X	5,8%
Heat	-6,5	-5,5	-250	-217	1,40	1,46		-10,6%
Tip: Bet the Pelicans.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Jazz	-2,5	-3,1	-140	-143	1,71	1,70		2,5%
Pistons	+2,5	+3,1	+127	+143	2,27	2,43		-7,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Grizzlies	-2,5	-2,4	-136	-127	1,74	1,79		-3,2%
Bulls	+2,5	+2,4	+123	+127	2,23	2,27		-1,6%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Blazers	+11,5	+12,8	+598	+974	6,98	10,74		-13,9%
Spurs	-11,5	-12,8	-741	-974	1,13	1,10	X	9,1%
Tip: Bet the Spurs.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Kings	+5,5	+5,2	+199	+204	2,99	3,04		0,1%
Suns	-5,5	-5,2	-222	-204	1,45	1,49		-4,8%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bucks	+7,5	+6,4	+285	+252	3,85	3,52		6,6%
Clippers	-7,5	-6,4	-325	-252	1,31	1,40		-11,4%
Tip: Bet the Bucks.

 

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend betting the Wizards -7 versus Dallas. The Mavs second-highest scorer, Wesley Matthews, will be a game-time decision because of a calf injury. This morning he said “You guys will never know how much pain I’m in”. If I’m a Mavericks fan, I don’t like the sound of it. Even though he will be playing tonight, it looks like he won’t be near 100%. The Mavs went on a nice 7-game stretch where they won 6 of them. However, the followed that up by losing at home to the lowly Suns and losing decisively 100-78 in Toronto against a minus-Lowry Raptors team. To me, that’s a red flag that they might be headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, the Wizards had won 7 of their last 8 games before dropping their last game in Minnesota. They are a much superior team than Dallas and I expect them to rebound tonight. The only thing I don’t like about this matchup is Dallas beating the Wizards in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

For a second straight game, I’m going with the Pelicans +6.5 in Miami. New Orleans is playing the second of back-to-back games, but they benefited from two days’ rest before that so it’s not as bad. As I said yesterday, the Pelicans are finally showing signs of a team that’s jelling since the acquisition of Cousins. They have won 4 of their last 7 games and if you take a closer look at their losses, they weren’t bad at all: 94-87 versus Toronto, 88-83 in Utah and 101-98 in overtime against a great Spurs team. So basically over the last 7 games their worst outing was a 7-point loss. The Heat had won 8 of 10 before dropping their last match in Indiana. Miami won 6 of the last 7 home games against New Orleans, but the last two games weren’t bad performances by the Pelicans: a loss in overtime, and a 105-91 win.

I like the Spurs -11.5 versus the Blazers. Wow, you don’t get to see me pick such a big favorite very often, but it’s the case tonight. There are two main reasons: 1) the Spurs’ second-highest scorer, LaMarcus Aldridge, won’t have any restrictions tonight after undergoing some testing of his heart; 2) the Blazers will be dog-tired, and it’s not good news whenever you are playing such a great team like the Spurs. Not only is it a second game in as many nights for Portland, but tonight’s game will be their 4^th in 5 days!!! You don’t see that very often in the NBA. San Antonio has won 11 of their last 12 games overall, and has also beaten Portland in the last 5 meetings.

It seems like these days I’m always involved in the Milwaukee Bucks’ games, either betting on them or against them. Tonight I’m picking the Bucks +7.5 at the Clippers. Both teams faced each other 12 days ago, where Milwaukee took it 112-101 at home. The Bucks saw their 6-game winning streak snapped two days ago in Memphis. The Clippers are also coming off a loss after getting some success (they had won 4 of 5). Khris Middleton is slowly finding his groove back after missing the first 3 months of the season, and it has shown some results in the wins column for Milwaukee.

Cheers!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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