NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Only 2 profitable bets out of 10 games on this Friday night and both are rated 1-star. I wish there were more value bets, but you simply can’t force things to happen! Sometimes the best decision you can make is to stay away from some games you were considering betting. Let’s have a look at the full projections!

 

MARCH 24, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Nets	+12	+11,2	+638	+669	7,38	7,69		0,1%
Wizards	-12	-11,2	-800	-669	1,13	1,15		-4,8%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Cavaliers	-3	-2,6	-155	-131	1,65	1,76		-5,7%
Hornets	+3	+2,6	+140	+131	2,40	2,31		0,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Pistons	-4	-2,8	-175	-138	1,57	1,72		-12,2%
Magic	+4	+2,8	+158	+138	2,58	2,38	X	7,5%
Tip: Bet the Magic.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Nuggets	+2	+2,2	+111	+122	2,11	2,22		-4,0%
Pacers	-2	-2,2	-123	-122	1,81	1,82		-0,7%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Suns	+15,5	+15,8	+1950	+3530	20,50	36,30		-2,8%
Celtics	-15,5	-15,8	-4000	-3530	1,03	1,03		-2,1%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
76ers	+6,5	+5,2	+235	+203	3,35	3,03	X	8,3%
Bulls	-6,5	-5,2	-265	-203	1,38	1,49		-13,0%
Tip: Bet the 76ers.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Hawks	+6	+5,2	+211	+203	3,11	3,03		4,2%
Bucks	-6	-5,2	-237	-203	1,42	1,49		-8,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Pelicans	+7,5	+8,1	+285	+346	3,85	4,46		2,2%
Rockets	-7,5	-8,1	-325	-346	1,31	1,29		-7,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Twolves	-6	-6,2	-246	-243	1,41	1,41		-0,7%
Lakers	+6	+6,2	+219	+243	3,19	3,43		-4,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Kings	+17,5	+18,1	+2173	+4500	22,73	46,00		-4,5%
Warriors	-17,5	-18,1	-5000	-4500	1,02	1,02		-0,3%
Tip: No value bet.

 

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

The bet I like the most today (even though I must admit I’m not super excited about it either) is Philadelphia +6.5 in Chicago. The Sixers have a .366 record overall and have gone 9-17 since their star player Joel Embiid went down to an injury. That’s a .346 record so surprisingly they haven’t regressed as much as you would have anticipated. I see them as a .300 – .330 team. On the other hand, the Bulls have a .472 record but without Dwayne Wade and considering they have lost Gibson and McDermott via trade a month ago, I believe they are roughly a .400 team. Based on these assumptions and also taking into account the fact that Chicago may be a little more tired than Philadelphia (3^rd game in 4 nights for the Bulls versus 4^th game in 6 days for the Sixers), my final projections view the Bulls as 5.2-point favorites. That being said, you may be worried by the Bulls 12-game winning streak over Philadelphia… Will the streak end tonight, just like the Raptors were able to snap an 11-game skid against those same Chicago Bulls? The 76ers are coming off a disappointing 122-97 loss at Oklahoma City. Prior to that game, they had been playing fairly well over a 5-game stretch, where they went 3-2 with one of the losses in overtime and the other by a 2-point margin in Golden State!

 

My next and final pick of the day goes to Orlando +4 against Detroit. Both teams have been struggling recently, and I feel like it usually leads to close tight games (which is good for the underdog). The Magic went through a 7-game stretch where they lost all but one. However, they followed that up with two straight wins, which was snapped two days ago by a 109-102 loss against the Hornets. The Pistons are sitting in 10^th place in the Eastern Conference, only one game back from the final playoff spot. They did not help their own cause by dropping 5 of their last 6 contests (with their only win at home against an awful Suns’ team). These two teams met twice this year, both in Detroit. The Pistons won the first match 108-82 in October, while the Magic got revenge with a 98-92 victory in December. Detroit is only 11-24 on the road.

A few notes about other games:

• Although I’m not making it an official pick, I kind of like the Pelicans +7.5 in Houston. My projections have the Rockets winning by 8.1 points, so why do I like New Orleans? Just a gut feeling, but also the fact that I feel like the motivation level will be much higher for the Pelicans. If you look at the standings, the Rockets are pretty much locked into 3^rd place: they are 6 games back of second place, and hold a 5.5-game lead over 4^th Meanwhile, the Pelicans have little hope of making the playoffs (4 games back of the 8^th seed), but a three-game winning streak has the team dreaming a little bit. Perhaps things are finally clicking for good between stars Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins? As of 11am, 69% of the bets on the spread and 85% of the money line bets have gone on Houston. The line has only moved by 0.5 point. For those of you who have been following me, you know I’m more of a contrarian, so I like seeing such numbers.

 

• A very interesting game will be taking place in Milwaukee tonight as the Hawks visit the Bucks. These teams are going in totally opposite directions: the Hawks have lost 5 straight, while the Bucks have won 10 of their last 12 games. The injuries to Millsap and Bazemore won’t help Atlanta rebound, but it’s interesting to note that the Hawks have beaten the Bucks on four straight occasions (7 of the past 9 meetings). If Milwaukee wins tonight, they would be tied with Atlanta in 5^th

 

• What is going on with the Cavaliers? All of their injured players are back on the court, and yet the team is struggling. It may take a bit of time for the team to get in a groove? Who knows? I’m anxious to see what happens tonight in Charlotte against a very motivated Hornets squad who is only 2.5 games back from the final playoff spot (thanks to a 3-game winning streak). Cleveland has won 5 straight matchups against Charlotte (9 of the past 10). The public is betting HEAVY on Cleveland, as over 90% of the bets have gone their way. I’m surprised the line has only moved by half a point in such circumstances!

 

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ