NBA DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

What is going on? It seems like over the past few days a larger proportion of games are offering profitable bets. Today I see value in 4 out of 5 games (no projections on Wizards-Knicks since there are too many unknown factors at the time I’m writing this report, and the line is off the board). We’ve got bets rated 4 stars twice, 3 stars once and 1 star once. Let’s see the details right away:

APRIL 6, 2017
	SPREAD		MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bulls	-6,5	-3,4	-250	-152	1,40	1,66		-27,8%
76ers	+6,5	+3,4	+222	+152	3,22	2,52	X	23,0%
Tip: Bet the 76ers.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Nets	+2,5	+2,3	+127	+122	2,27	2,22		-0,7%
Magic	-2,5	-2,3	-140	-122	1,71	1,82		-4,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Bucks	+4,5	+2,3	+173	+126	2,73	2,26	X	15,7%
Pacers	-4,5	-2,3	-193	-126	1,52	1,79		-20,4%
Tip: Bet the Bucks.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Celtics	-1,5	+1,5	-117	+113	1,85	2,13		-13,9%
Hawks	+1,5	-1,5	+106	-113	2,06	1,88	X	9,3%
Tip: Bet the Hawks.
	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	PICK	ROI
Twolves	+6	+3,3	+214	+150	3,14	2,50	X	22,2%
Blazers	-6	-3,3	-240	-150	1,42	1,67		-27,0%
Tip: Bet the Timberwolves.

 

“GREAT” BETS (4 stars / 5):

I like the Sixers +6.5 against the Bulls. Yep, I’m betting against Chicago for a second straight game. We all know how depleted Philly’s lineup is (Embiid, Okafor and Covington are out, with Saric limited in minutes). I generally tend to go against the grain, and my statistical models are telling me to do so in this game. Chicago has enough talent to beat the best teams in the league, but inconsistency has defined their season and they keep losing to bad teams (as illustrated by the 100-91 loss to the Knicks a couple of days ago). I’m not surprised at all to see 77% of the bets backing Chicago. Most people are jumping on the Bulls bandwagon, which creates value on the other side. The recent 4-game winning streak by the Bulls led people to believe they were better than they truly are, in my own humble opinion. Take the 76ers with the 6.5 points.

I love the T-Wolves +6 in Portland. Love it. Here is another example of people going crazy over a certain team because they rode a nice winning streak and made the news and headlines several times. Portland won 6 consecutive games (9 of 10), but they have now lost two straight (including one in Minnesota) and most importantly they also lost their starting center Jusuf Nurkic. The only thing that worries me is the Blazers winning 20 of their last 22 home games against the Timberwolves. But Minnesota has enough talent with Towns and Wiggins leading the charge to keep up with the Blazers. I expect a tight game.

 

“GOOD” BETS (3 stars / 5):

My next pick goes to the Bucks +4.5 in Indiana (another underdog!?!). Milwaukee is trying to sweep the four-game series after winning the first three matchups in 2016-2017. The Bucks are 6-3 against the spread versus Indiana over the last 9 meetings. Milwaukee was flying high after winning 8 of 10 games, but has now lost two consecutive matches. The Pacers are a team that’s hard to figure out: they can be great at times and very bad on other occasions. Two days ago they were trailing by 19 against Toronto: they ended winning the game by 18!

 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, I’m betting the Hawks +1.5 against the Celtics. Boston may still be hurting from last night’s disappointing blowout against the Cavaliers, which really hurt their chances of grabbing the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Not only are they playing the backend of a back-to-back set, but Atlanta got three full days of rest. The Hawks have beaten the Celtics 3 times out of the last 4 meetings (they beat the spread by 9, 19.5 and 21 on those three wins!). Sure, the Hawks have lost 9 of their past 11 contests, which is why the public is underestimating them in this one. But recall they were missing Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore for several games, but both are expected to be in the lineup tonight. They are definitely getting healthier. As of 9:30 am, 91% of the bets have gone on Boston!!!

 

I hope you enjoyed the read, have a good day!

Professor MJ