Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NHL Projections: 2017-02-23
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NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
February 23th, 2017
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!
Happy birthday… to me! Yes, today is my birthday, and it will also be the beginning of my daily NHL projections. For now I’m using three different statistical models and I intend to add a couple more in the future to refine the projections even more. Enjoy the read!
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Rangers |
-101 |
-157 |
1,99 |
1,64 |
X |
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Maple Leafs |
-109 |
+157 |
1,92 |
2,57 |
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Mitch Marner is out for the Leafs, which hurts the team (their 2nd best scorer). The Rangers have recorded at least one point in 8 of their past 9 contests. These two teams met twice this year: the road team won each game. The Rangers have won 64.4% (38 out of 59) of their games this year and are facing a middle-of-the-pack team. Yes, they are on the road, but with a key piece missing for the Leafs, why wouldn’t you bet New York at -101? What a bargain!
Final pick: Bet the Rangers at -101 (1.99) for a ROI of 21.6%.
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Islanders |
+143 |
+137 |
2,43 |
2,37 |
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Canadiens |
-158 |
-137 |
1,63 |
1,73 |
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The Islanders have been rejuvenated since firing their head coach, as they are 11-4-2 under coach Doug Weight. Meanwhile, the Habs have provided Claude Julien his first win with the team in a 3-2 shootout win over the Rangers. It snapped a bad 5-game streak where Carey Price allowed 3 goals or more. He looked sharp and energized following the one-week break. Montreal hasn’t won two consecutive games in nearly two months!
Final pick: No profitable bet here, but bet the Islanders if the line moves to +150 (2.50) or higher.
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Flames |
+135 |
+138 |
2,35 |
2,38 |
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Lightning |
-149 |
-138 |
1,67 |
1,72 |
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The projections above were made assuming Ben Bishop would be in net for the Lightning. Jonathan Drouin has the flu and looks like he has a 50/50 chance of playing tonight. Both teams are on fire: Calgary has a 6-2-1 record lately versus 5-0-2 for Tampa Bay.
Final pick: No profitable bet here.
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Avalanche |
+218 |
+253 |
3,18 |
3,53 |
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Predators |
-245 |
-253 |
1,41 |
1,40 |
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At this time of writing, Colorado’s goalie had not been announced yet, so we are assuming Calvin Pickard will be in net. Nashville has won all 4 games against the Avalanche this season. The Predators have had trouble starting games recently: they have trailed by three goals in 4 of their past 5 games.
Final pick: No profitable bet here.
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Coyotes |
+222 |
+269 |
3,22 |
3,69 |
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Blackhawks |
-250 |
-269 |
1,40 |
1,37 |
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Chicago has won 7 of their last 8 games, including a 5-3 win over Minnesota sparked by Jonathan Toews’ five-point night.
Final pick: No profitable bet here. Bet the Blackhawks if the line moves to -225 (1.44) or higher.
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BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
BOOKMAKER |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
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Bruins |
+121 |
+152 |
2,21 |
2,52 |
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Kings |
-134 |
-152 |
1,75 |
1,66 |
X |
After winning their first 4 games under new coach Cassidy, the Bruins lost 5-3 in Anaheim. It was their 9th loss in 11 games in the state of California. Two big things are going against Boston tonight (on top of their recent failures in California): Tuukka Rask is taking a day off which means Khudobin will be in net after appearing in only 9 games this year, and Boston is playing the second of back-to-back games, where they are 2-6-2 in such circumstances this year.
Final pick: Bet the Kings at -134 (1.75) for a ROI of 5.3%.
Enjoy the games tonight!!
Professor MJ
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