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NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

February 27, 2017

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

Only 3 games tonight, but I have found a value bet on each game. Let’s see the details:

	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK
Canadiens	-114	-139	1,88	1,72	X
Devils	+103	+139	2,03	2,39

 

Montreal has beaten New Jersey in both previous matchups this season (5-2 in Montreal, 3-1 in NJ). The Canadiens have been struggling recently, as shown by their 3-7-1 record in February, with all three wins coming in overtime or shootout! However, Carey Price is showing signs of getting back to his old self by having allowed 10 goals in its last 4 games. The Devils have lost 4 of their past 5 games.

Final pick: Bet the Canadiens at -114 (decimal odds = 1.88) for a ROI (Return On Investment) of 9.2%.

   

	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK
Senators	+152	+129	2,52	2,29	X
Lightning	-168	-129	1,60	1,78

 

Ottawa is making a strong push to reach the top spot in the Atlantic division. They are now just 2 points back of Montreal with 2 games in hand. The team welcomed back the return of Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman from injuries yesterday with a 2-1 win in Florida.

It was a matter of time before the Lightning would turn over the starting goalie duties to former first-round pick Andrei Vasilevskiy. This time has come following the trade of Ben Bishop to Los Angeles. Tampa Bay gets veteran Peter Budaj who has been amazing replacing Jonathan Quick: he leads the league with 7 shuotouts, and owns a 2.12 GAA and a .917 save percentage.

My statistical models estimate Ottawa’s chances of winning in Tampa Bay to be around 48.7% (they have the superior team, but are on the road). After accounting for the fact that the Sens are playing the second of back-to-back games, the probability goes down to 43.7% which explains the projected +129 line. Bookies are offering odds which are significantly higher, thus the recommendation to bet Ottawa here.

Final pick: Bet the Senators at +152 (decimal odds = 2.52) for a ROI of 10.0%.

 

	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	BOOKMAKER	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK
Kings	+120	+169	2,20	2,69
Wild	-133	-169	1,75	1,59	X

 

Both teams have just finalized a trade. The Kings acquired goalie Ben Bishop in exchange for veteran Peter Budaj who was nothing short of stellar filling in for injured Jonathan Quick. Meanwhile, Minnesota acquired 6’6’’ center Martin Hanzal from Arizona.

After injuring his groin on the very first game of the season, Jonathan Quick was finally back for the Kings. He celebrated his return with a 4-1 win over Anaheim.

Minnesota is coming off a bye week. I deducted 4% to their estimated win probability to account for the “rust factor”, and we still get a pretty interesting profitable bet on them.

Final pick: Bet the Wild at -133 (decimal odds = 1.75) for a ROI of 10.1%.

 

Good luck with your plays!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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