Professor MJ's Daily Pregame NHL Projections: 2017-03-09
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NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS
BY PROFESSOR MJ
March 9th, 2017
Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!
There are 10 games Thursday night and I have 4 value bets for you. Nothing exceptional, but still profitable so let’s hope we can hit 3 out of 4. At this time of writing, the line on Ottawa-Arizona has not opened yet so I will give you some guidelines below. Let’s have a look at the full projections!
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MARCH 9, 2017 |
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MONEY LINE |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Rangers |
-129 |
-147 |
1,78 |
1,68 |
X |
5,6% |
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Hurricanes |
+117 |
+147 |
2,17 |
2,47 |
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-12,1% |
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Tip: Bet the Rangers. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Flyers |
+127 |
+122 |
2,27 |
2,22 |
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2,3% |
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Maple Leafs |
-140 |
-122 |
1,71 |
1,82 |
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-5,8% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Wild |
-113 |
-143 |
1,88 |
1,70 |
X |
10,9% |
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Lightning |
+102 |
+143 |
2,02 |
2,43 |
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-16,9% |
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Tip: Bet the Wild. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Ducks |
+147 |
+186 |
2,47 |
2,86 |
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-13,6% |
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Blackhawks |
-163 |
-186 |
1,61 |
1,54 |
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4,9% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Devils |
-116 |
-109 |
1,86 |
1,92 |
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-2,9% |
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Avalanche |
+105 |
+109 |
2,05 |
2,09 |
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-1,9% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Canadiens |
+102 |
+104 |
2,02 |
2,04 |
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-1,0% |
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Flames |
-113 |
-104 |
1,88 |
1,96 |
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-3,9% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Senators |
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-113 |
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1,88 |
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Coyotes |
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+113 |
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2,13 |
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Tip: No line yet (bet the Senators if line 2.00+, bet Coyotes if 2.24+). |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
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Islanders |
-140 |
-123 |
1,71 |
1,81 |
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-5,4% |
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Canucks |
+127 |
+123 |
2,27 |
2,23 |
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1,8% |
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Tip: No value bet. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
|
Predators |
+118 |
+104 |
2,18 |
2,04 |
X |
6,9% |
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Kings |
-130 |
-104 |
1,77 |
1,96 |
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-9,8% |
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Tip: Bet the Predators. |
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Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
Pinnacle |
PROFESSOR MJ |
PICK |
ROI |
|
Capitals |
-108 |
-123 |
1,93 |
1,81 |
X |
6,2% |
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Sharks |
-102 |
+123 |
1,98 |
2,23 |
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-11,2% |
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Tip: Bet the Capitals. |
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I’m betting the Wild -113 (decimal 1.88) at Tampa Bay, despite some factors going against them. The home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Wild beat Tampa 2-1 in Minnesota last October. I have deducted 5% to the Wild’s estimated win probability to account for the goalie situation: most of the time Devan Dubnyk starts 3 games before letting Kuemper get the nod. Since Dubnyk has started the last 3 games and they are playing the first leg of back-to-back games, I believe Kuemper has a 75% chance of starting this game. This isn’t good news if you are betting Minnesota because he hasn’t been nearly as good as Dubnyk. I also adjusted for the recent trades: the Wild obtained Martin Hanzal and Ryan White, while Tampa lost Boyle and Filppula.
I like the Predators +118 (decimal 2.18) in Los Angeles. The Kings have had 4 days’ rest, which I don’t believe is good news for them. We saw how teams coming off their bye week did poorly this season. The Kings have a 4-9 record over their last 13 games, but they won both meetings against the Preds this year. Nashville went on a 4-game winning streak before losing 3 straight.
I am also taking Washington -108 (decimal 1.93) in San Jose. The Caps had won 5 of their last 6 games before unexpectedly losing 4-2 at home against a mediocre Dallas Stars team. We’ll see how they respond. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 games. They also won the only meeting between the two teams this year by a 3-0 score in Washington. As a matter of fact, San Jose has won 8 of the last 10 meetings against the Caps, but both losses came in San Jose. I fully expect Braden Holtby and Martin Jones to be the starters.
Finally, I’m picking the Rangers (again!) -129 (decimal 1.78) in Carolina. Much like the Wild pick, some factors are playing against them but the numbers are still telling me to back them up. First, New York will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. Second, the home team has won 6 of the past 7 meetings and all 3 this year have been very close games (4-2, 3-2 and 3-2). Cam Ward should be back in net since Eddie Lack lost the game (Paul Maurice has been alternating following losses). Still, the Rangers have a much superior team so I see value in this line.
As mentioned in the introduction, the line has not opened yet on the Senators-Coyotes game. Bet Ottawa if you can get +100 or better (decimal: 2.00 or more). Bet Arizona if the line is +124 or better (decimal: 2.24 or more). My feeling is we will get some value with Arizona. Several things are going against Ottawa: second game in two nights (3rd in 4 nights, 4th in 6 nights), Condon should get the start since Anderson has been confirmed for tonight, Mike Smith is very likely to be in net since Domingue started the next-to-last game, and injuries to Bobby Ryan, Chris Neil and now Kyle Turris (3rd best scorer for Ottawa). I wouldn’t be surprised if the general public underestimates those factors.
Good luck!
Professor MJ
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