NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

As promised in the Facebook group, I am providing some projections on tomorrow’s games. Try to grab some early lines if possible. I’ve got 4 profitable bets for you, and there are 2 games where the line is off the board (I wrote this report Friday around 3-4pm) so I will give you some guidelines as to how to proceed when they come up. Enjoy the read!

 

MARCH 18, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Avalanche	+162	+137	2,62	2,37	X	10,5%
Red Wings	-180	-137	1,56	1,73		-10,1%
Tip: Bet the Avalanche.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blue Jackets	-120	-138	1,83	1,72	X	6,3%
Islanders	+109	+138	2,09	2,38		-12,2%
Tip: Bet the Blue Jackets.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Rangers	Off	+150	Off	2,50
Wild	Off	-150	Off	1,67
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blackhawks	-111	-124	1,90	1,81	X	5,2%
Maple Leafs	+101	+124	2,01	2,24		-10,3%
Tip: Bet the Blackhawks.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Canadiens	-109	+115	1,92	2,15		-10,8%
Senators	-101	-115	1,99	1,87	X	6,4%
Tip: Bet the Senators.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Capitals	-128	-128	1,78	1,78		0,0%
Lightning	+116	+128	2,16	2,28		-5,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Predators	-106	-114	1,94	1,88		3,5%
Hurricanes	-104	+114	1,96	2,14		-8,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blues	-140	-130	1,71	1,77		-3,1%
Coyotes	+127	+130	2,27	2,30		-1,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Canucks	+218	+208	3,18	3,08		3,2%
Oilers	-245	-208	1,41	1,48		-4,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Ducks	Off	+194	Off	2,94
Sharks	Off	-194	Off	1,52
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.

 

I picked Colorado to beat Detroit 3 days ago. I’m at it again, as I advise to take the Avalanche at +162 (decimal 2.62) in Detroit. I can’t believe the line is that high! I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes down to around +150 tomorrow. Calvin Pickard has already been confirmed as the Avs’ starting goalie, which is good. Today I found a very interesting article that presents the home team’s win probability depending on whether the home or road team benefited from 1-2-3 more day(s)’ rest than its opponent. For example, they claim the home team wins 55% of games overall. Now, when the road team has had 1 more day to rest, the home team wins 53% of the time. In other words, they “gain” an additional 2%. I took that into account here, and I will use this report’s numbers in the future (I’d like to double-check in the near future with my own dataset which contains 9 full NHL seasons of data). The Avalanche has won 3 of its last 5 games, while Detroit has only won 2 of their last 8 matches. I also like the fact that Colorado has won the last 3 meetings in Detroit (all in extra time, but it still shows they are not intimidated there).

I’m also taking Ottawa -101 (decimal 1.99) at home against the Habs. In injury news, Radulov and Emelin are battling the flu and their status is uncertain (at least one of them will probably play). For Ottawa, they will be missing their second-leading scorer Mark Stone because of a leg injury. Price has been named the starter, we don’t know yet whether Condon or Anderson will defend the Sens’ cage. Both teams have won 7 of their last 10 games. Ottawa won 6 straight before dropping the last two games (2-1 in overtime against Tampa and 2-1 against Chicago, so nothing to be ashamed of). The Sens have won both meetings by a 4-3 score so far this year.

The next pick goes to Columbus -120 (decimal 1.83) on the road against the Islanders. Sergei Bobrovsky is likely to be the starter since the team might prefer to put Korpisalo in net against the lowly Devils the next day. The home team has won all 3 meetings this season, so I’m hoping the trend ends: the Jackets won 7-0 and 6-2 at home, but lost 4-2 in New York. I’m also a bit worried about the Isles winning 6 of the past 8 matchups, but the odds offer too much value to pass.

Finally, I’m going with Chicago -111 (decimal 1.90) in Toronto. Claiming that the Hawks are on fire would be an understatement: they have won 15 of their last 18 games! Unfortunately for them they lost Artem Anisimov to an injury three days ago against Montreal. He will be out Saturday night. Chicago is on a 4-game winning streak against the Leafs (dating back to December 2014).

Some guidelines regarding the two games whose lines are off the board at this time of writing (Friday afternoon):

• Bet the Rangers if the line is +164 (decimal 2.64) or higher, bet the Wild if the line is -132 (decimal 1.76) or higher.
• Bet the Ducks if the line is +310 (decimal 2.10) or higher, bet the Sharks if the line is -166 (decimal 1.60) or higher.

Enjoy your Saturday!!

Professor MJ

www.professormj.com

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