NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

FREE NHL CONTEST - WIN A NHL JERSEY!

I'm happy to introduce a "survivor pool" in the NHL which will start this Thursday. For those of you who are not familiar with the concept, here are the basics: every day you pick a team you believe will win. If the team loses, you are eliminated. If it wins, you pick another team the next day, but you can't pick the same team more than once throughout the contest. The last person standing will win a NHL jersey.

I have set up a webpage with the complete rules:

https://www.professormj.com/pages/nhl-survivor-pool-begins-thursday-march-23-2017

There are 11 games tonight in the NHL. As of this morning, I see 3 profitable bets (none that is extraordinarily good though) and 2 more where you should verify throughout the day whether the line will move in your favor or not. Also, the lines on Senators-Bruins and Coyotes-Lightning are off the board at this time of writing, so as usual I will provide some guidelines. Without further ado, let’s dive into the details!

  

MARCH 21, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Senators	Off	+149	Off	2,49
Bruins	Off	-149	Off	1,67
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Penguins	-181	-149	1,55	1,67		-7,1%
Sabres	+163	+149	2,63	2,49	X	5,6%
Tip: Bet the Sabres.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Rangers	-145	-164	1,69	1,61	X	5,0%
Devils	+131	+164	2,31	2,64		-12,5%
Tip: Bet the Rangers.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flames	+164	+159	2,64	2,59		1,9%
Capitals	-182	-159	1,55	1,63		-4,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Red Wings	+222	+232	3,22	3,32		-3,0%
Canadiens	-250	-232	1,40	1,43		-2,2%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Coyotes	Off	+229	Off	3,29
Lightning	Off	-229	Off	1,44
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Hurricanes	+115	+135	2,15	2,35		-8,5%
Panthers	-127	-135	1,79	1,74		2,7%
Tip: No value bet (keep track of the line on the Panthers).
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flyers	+121	+109	2,21	2,09	X	5,7%
Jets	-133	-109	1,75	1,92		-8,6%
Tip: Bet the Flyers.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Canucks	+252	+272	3,52	3,72		-5,4%
Blackhawks	-285	-272	1,35	1,37		-1,2%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Sharks	+150	+170	2,50	2,70		-7,4%
Wild	-166	-170	1,60	1,59		0,9%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blues	-193	-161	1,52	1,62		-6,4%
Avalanche	+173	+161	2,73	2,61		4,6%
Tip: No value bet (keep track of the line on the Avalanche).

 

The bet that yields the highest ROI (Return on Investment) at 5.7%, which is nothing to write home about, is Philadelphia +121 (decimal 2.21) in Winnipeg. The Jets were already without Tyler Myers at the blue line, and they will be missing two more defensemen tonight: Jacob Trouba and Toby Enstrom. Those three guys are 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th in average time on ice for Winnipeg. That hurts. The Jets snapped a 4-game losing streak by beating the Islanders and then Minnesota two days ago. The Flyers beat the Jets 5-2 earlier this season, which extended their winning streak against Winnipeg to 6 games (including two on the road)!

 

My next recommendation goes to another underdog: I suggest taking the Sabres +163 (decimal 2.63) against Pittsburgh. Evgeni Malkin will miss his third straight game, while Letang, Daley, Maatta, Hainsey and Hagelin are also likely out. Will the Penguins start Fleury for a second straight game since he just shutout the Panthers, or will they go back to their starter (Murray)? We’ll find out soon. Pittsburgh has won 7 of its last 9 games, but we can’t say they have faced tough opposition recently (Florida, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Buffalo). The Penguins have won 9 of the last 10 meetings over Buffalo, but the last 5 have ended by a 1-goal differential (including a 2-1 Sabres win in Buffalo earlier this year). Buffalo played last night, which was accounted for when making the projections. 79% of the money line bets by the public have gone on Pittsburgh, and yet the line hasn’t moved.

The last pick is the Rangers -145 (decimal 1.69) in New Jersey. Henrik Lundqvist may be back this weekend, but he’s not ready yet. Raanta has now started the last 5 games, and with tonight’s game being the first of back-to-back games, I’m a little worried that they might rest him in favor of their third-string goalie. You may want to wait until Raanta is confirmed before placing a bet, but the line may move in the wrong direction, so it’s up to you to make the call. The Rangers have won all 3 matchups against the Devils in 2016-2017. New York holds the league’s best road record at 26-9-0. The Devils seem to be lost, having won a single game over their past 13 contests.

Keep track of the following two games:

• Bet the Panthers against the Hurricanes if the line moves from -127 to -120 (decimal 1.83).
• Bet the Avalanche against the Blues if the line moves from +173 to +177 (decimal 2.77).

Finally, here are my guidelines regarding the couple of games where the lines are currently off the board:

• Bet the Senators if the line is +162 (decimal 2.62) or higher. Bet the Bruins if the line is -132 (decimal 1.76) or higher.
• Bet the Coyotes if the line is +247 (decimal 3.47) or higher. Bet the Lightning if the line is -195 (decimal 1.51) or higher.

 

Thank you very much for reading!

Professor MJ

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