NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

I am writing this report one day in advance, which explains why the line on the Islanders-Penguins game is off the board. I’m actually more excited about the 2 picks below than I was about the value bets from the past few days. I feel like I find more profitable bets when I make the projections one day early. You will find all the details in the table and the text below:

 

MARCH 24, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Islanders	Off	+169	Off	2,69
Penguins	Off	-169	Off	1,59
Tip: See guidelines in the text below.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Lightning	-108	+103	1,93	2,03		-5,1%
Red Wings	-102	-103	1,98	1,97		0,5%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Sharks	-130	-160	1,77	1,63	X	8,9%
Stars	+118	+160	2,18	2,60		-16,2%
Tip: Bet the Sharks.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Jets	+151	+196	2,51	2,96		-15,2%
Ducks	-167	-196	1,60	1,51	X	5,9%
Tip: Bet the Ducks.

 

I really like a lot the Sharks at -130 (decimal 1.77) in Dallas. Here you have the opportunity to bet a much superior hockey team playing on two days’ rest while their opponent will be on the second leg of a back-to-back set with travel (i.e. both of the Stars’ games weren’t at home, they had to travel from Chicago to Dallas overnight). On top of that, the Stars goalie may be their backup since Kari Lehtonen will start in Chicago. Or if they elect to go with Lehtonen again he won’t be as efficient because of the fatigue factor. As of now, it does not look like Dallas’ third-leading scorer Jason Spezza will be able to suit up. He skated Wednesday, but did not participate in practice so he may not be ready to return yet. On San Jose’s side, Marc-Edouard Vlasic missed the Sharks’ last game because of the flu. We’ll see if he feels better Friday night. It will be the third meeting between these teams in March: San Jose won 5-1 at home before losing 1-0 in Dallas. Sure, the Sharks have lost 4 straight, but it does not scare me away. I’m taking San Jose on this one.

I’m also high on the Ducks at -167 (decimal 1.60) at home versus Winnipeg. Defencemen Trouba and Enstrom are likely to miss the game for the Jets. Starting goalie John Gibson may be ready to return for Anaheim, but nothing official yet. The Ducks have beaten the Jets in 9 of the past 10 meetings (the only loss was a 2-1 overtime loss last season). I believe it’s safe to say they have their number! Both teams have been playing well of late. Anaheim has won 6 of their past 8 contests, including the last two. The Jets snapped a 4-game losing streak by winning their last 3 matches. Winnipeg will be playing a 2nd game in as many nights.

A few notes about the Islanders-Penguins game. The Islanders, who are fighting hard for the last playoff spot, received bad news when it was announced that Ryan Strome broke his wrist and won’t return this season. At this time of writing, it looks like Evgeni Malkin will miss the game in Ottawa Thursday night, so I’m not sure what his status is for Friday night against New York. Marc-Andre Fleury is likely to be the starter since Murray will be in the net in Ottawa. The Islanders have recalled from Bridgeport Jaroslav Halak, whose play has been stellar in the AHL: he went 17-7-1 with a 2.15 GAA and a 92.5% save percentage. With Thomas Greiss not playing at his best recently and Jean-Francois Berube struggling to hold on the backup job, it appears like the Islanders want to use Halak to push hard for a playoff spot. He may get the nod in Pittsburgh. Based on all the information above, my projected lines are Islanders +169 versus Penguins -169. I recommend betting the Islanders if the line is +183 (decimal 2.83) or higher. You may want to bet Pittsburgh if the line is -148 (decimal 1.676) or higher.

Thank you very much for reading!

Professor MJ