NHL DAILY PROJECTIONS

BY PROFESSOR MJ

 

 

We have more exciting games with playoff implications in the NHL tonight. From a betting perspective, I see 3 profitable bets including one that has an estimated ROI (Return On Investment) above 20%. All of my picks are road underdogs, so bet at your own risk and remember that the win percentage on such picks inevitably leads to a win percentage below 50%, but the objective is to end up with positive return in the long run. Let’s have a look at today’s hockey projections:

APRIL 4, 2017
	MONEY LINE
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Lightning	+145	+146	2,45	2,46		-0,4%
Bruins	-161	-146	1,62	1,68		-3,8%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flyers	-130	-131	1,77	1,76		0,3%
Devils	+118	+131	2,18	2,31		-5,6%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blue Jackets	+120	+105	2,20	2,05	X	7,3%
Penguins	-133	-105	1,75	1,95		-10,3%
Tip: Bet the Blue Jackets.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Capitals	-143	-140	1,70	1,71		-0,9%
Maple Leafs	+129	+140	2,29	2,40		-4,6%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Red Wings	+162	+161	2,62	2,61		0,4%
Senators	-180	-161	1,56	1,62		-4,0%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Jets	+141	+155	2,41	2,55		-5,5%
Blues	-156	-155	1,64	1,65		-0,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Islanders	+180	+167	2,80	2,67	X	4,9%
Predators	-201	-167	1,50	1,60		-6,3%
Tip: Bet the Islanders.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Hurricanes	+164	+180	2,64	2,80		-5,7%
Wild	-182	-180	1,55	1,56		-0,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Coyotes	+193	+144	2,93	2,44	X	20,1%
Stars	-215	-144	1,47	1,69		-13,5%
Tip: Bet the Coyotes.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Blackhawks	-241	-211	1,41	1,47		-4,0%
Avalanche	+215	+211	3,15	3,11		1,3%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Flames	+127	+123	2,27	2,23		1,8%
Ducks	-140	-123	1,71	1,81		-5,4%
Tip: No value bet.
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Oilers	100	-108	2,00	1,93		3,8%
Kings	-110	+108	1,91	2,08		-8,2%
Tip: No value bet (keep track of the line on the Oilers).
	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	Pinnacle	PROFESSOR MJ	PICK	ROI
Canucks	+227	+241	3,27	3,41		-4,1%
Sharks	-255	-241	1,39	1,41		-1,6%
Tip: No value bet.

 

My favorite bet has to be the Coyotes +193 (decimal 2.93) in Dallas. Both teams are eliminated and are showcasing younger players. I don’t believe the line should be that high. Mike Smith has been confirmed as the starter for Arizona, which is good news. Meanwhile, the Stars are sending Antti Niemi between the pipes whose numbers are pretty ordinary: a 3.31 GAA along with a save percentage of .892 (as a comparison, Dallas’ starting goalie Kari Lehtonen holds a 2.80 GAA and a .904 save percentage). Sure, the Coyotes will miss their best defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson who flew to Sweden to attend his mother’s funeral. He won’t be back with the team this season. Arizona is riding a two-game winning streak after beating Washington and Los Angeles. They will try to match their season’s longest winning streak at 3. Dallas is back at home after five straight games on the road.

I also like the Blue Jackets +120 (decimal 2.20) in Pittsburgh. Evgeni Malkin is officially out for tonight. The projections were made assuming Sergei Bobrovsky would be in net for Columbus, even though there is no confirmation yet. He has posted good numbers against the Pens this year: 2-0-1 with a 1.95 GAA and a .930 save percentage. Both teams have very similar records with the Jackets showing a better goal differential (+59 versus +45 for Pittsburgh). With Malkin out, the line should be closer to +105 versus -105. Oliver Bjorkstrand should be back on the ice for Columbus. The Penguins are on a 2-game winning streak while the Jackets are on a 3-game losing streak (they lost at Carolina, at Chicago and against Washington). These two teams are very likely to face each other in the first round of the playoffs: tonight’s game will go a long way in determining who gets home-ice advantage.

 

I’m betting another long shot with the Islanders +180 (decimal 2.80) in Nashville. The line is pretty high and most likely the result of an overreaction to the Tavares injury. The Islanders won 4 straight meetings against the Preds before losing the most recent two matchups. Halak will defend NY’s cage: he is 3-1 since being recalled from Bridgeport (AHL).

If the line moves from +100 to +105 (decimal 2.05) on the Oilers, I recommend betting them in Los Angeles. They have been playing extremely well for a while now, and they will benefit from one additional day of rest compared to the Kings. Los Angeles was officially eliminated from playoff contention following an awful 2-1 home loss to Arizona, capping a very disappointing season. The motivation level will be much higher on Edmonton’s side since they are only 2 points back of the top spot in the Pacific division with one game in hand.

Enjoy the games tonight!!

Professor MJ